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SAN JOSE

SHARKSSJ

4-3-1  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 7:00 PM ET
Little Caesars Arena
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

RED WINGSDET

3-3-2  |  Home

4
Goaltending
Alex Nedeljkovic
GOALTENDER

Alex Nedeljkovic

#33 | Goaltender
@
John Gibson
GOALTENDER

John Gibson

#36 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Alex Nedeljkovic None-None 2.79 0.889 --
John Gibson None-None 2.80 0.912 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
2.79 Ldr GAA 2.80
0.889 Save % Ldr 0.912
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
SHARKS
37%
📊
RED WINGS
63%
▲ Edge: +5% (DET)
SHARKS 45% Book Odds: +124
RED WINGS 58% Book Odds: -138
Book Implied: 44.60% / 58%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 6.5 42%
Under 6.5 58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
DETROIT
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Detroit)
SharksSJ (+1.5) 0 Red WingsDET (-1.5)
Detroit Red Wings (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sharks Cover

21.2%

Red Wings Cover

78.8%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around DET -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

SJ By 1 goal

8.6%

SJ By 2-3 goals

5.5%

DET By 1 goal

18.9%

DET By 2-3 goals

34.9%

AI Model Projected Score
2.2
SAN JOSE
Book Implied: 2.50
3.8
DETROIT
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
2
SAN JOSE
Book Implied: 2.50
4
DETROIT
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Red Wings Win
63% Win Prob
B
Sim Red Wings Win
84% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Red Wings (-1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.6
D
Sim Red Wings (-1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Sim u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 SJ @ DET 3 - 4
Jan 16, 2026 SJ @ DET 2 - 4
Nov 2, 2025 DET @ SJ 3 - 2
Jan 14, 2025 SJ @ DET 6 - 3
Nov 18, 2024 DET @ SJ 4 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5) +30.3% more
Detroit: 5.1 vs San Jose: 3.9
Blocked Shots (L5) +15.8% more
Detroit: 18.6 vs San Jose: 16.1
Faceoff % (L5) +1.6%
Detroit: 47.4% vs San Jose: 45.9%
Power Play % (L5) +8.7%
San Jose: 15.5% vs Detroit: 6.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SJ Score 2.2 3
DET Score 3.8 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 18.6 / 16.1 21.0 / 11.0
Faceoff % 47.4 / 45.9 45.1 / 54.9
Hits 22.2 / 24.3 28.0 / 18.0
Power Play % 6.8 / 15.5 25.0 / 33.3
Shots on Goal 28.9 / 29.5 27.0 / 34.0
Takeaways 5.1 / 3.9 5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +120 / -142 → +124 / -138 ↓
36%TICKETS64%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
81%TICKETS19%
75%MONEY25%
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5 → 6.5
89%TICKETS11%
92%MONEY8%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
SJ
DET
SJ
ML
62% 10-6
59% 10-7
44% 7-9
41% 7-10
ATS
38% 6-10
47% 8-9
69% 11-5
41% 7-10
TTL
20% 3-12-1
41% 7-10
40% 6-9-1
47% 8-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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