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BUFFALO

SABRESBUF

4-3-2  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 7:00 PM ET
Bell Centre
View Odds Details →

MONTREAL

CANADIENSMTL

4-3-1  |  Home

4
Goaltending
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
GOALTENDER

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

#1 | Goaltender
@
Jacob Fowler
GOALTENDER

Jacob Fowler

#32 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen None-None 4.00 0.882 --
Jacob Fowler None-None 2.96 0.885 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
4.00 GAA Ldr 2.96
0.882 Save % Ldr 0.885
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
SABRES
43%
📊
CANADIENS
57%
SABRES 45% Book Odds: +122
CANADIENS 57% Book Odds: -134
Book Implied: 45% / 57.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
Over 6.5 50%
Under 6.5 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
BUFFALO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
SabresBUF (+1.5) 0 CanadiensMTL (-1.5)
Line aligns with book spread (+1.5)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sabres Cover

77.3%

Canadiens Cover

22.7%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around BUF +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)

BUF By 1 goal

9.2%

BUF By 2-3 goals

6.1%

MTL By 1 goal

19.1%

MTL By 2-3 goals

34.1%

AI Model Projected Score
2.5
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 2.50
4
MONTREAL
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
2
BUFFALO
Book Implied: 2.50
3
MONTREAL
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Canadiens Win
57% Win Prob
D
Sim Canadiens Win
69% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Sabres (-1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: +1.5
D
Sim Sabres (+1.5) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 6.5
D
Sim u6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 BUF @ MTL 3 - 4
Oct 13, 2026 BUF @ MTL 3 - 4
May 18, 2026 MTL @ BUF 3 - 2
May 16, 2026 BUF @ MTL 8 - 3
May 14, 2026 MTL @ BUF 6 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5) +36.1% more
Montreal: 12.6 vs Buffalo: 9.2
Power Play % (L5) +16.8%
Montreal: 25.2% vs Buffalo: 8.4%
Shots on Goal (L5) +11.9% more
Montreal: 30.8 vs Buffalo: 27.5
Faceoff % (L5) +2.7%
Montreal: 49.3% vs Buffalo: 46.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUF Score 2.5 3
MTL Score 4.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 12.6 / 9.2 13.0 / 17.0
Faceoff % 49.3 / 46.6 63.2 / 36.8
Hits 19.1 / 20.3 20.0 / 18.0
Power Play % 25.2 / 8.4 20.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 30.8 / 27.5 34.0 / 26.0
Takeaways 3.7 / 3.6 3.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +114 / -135 → +122 / -134
21%TICKETS79%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
77%TICKETS23%
15%MONEY85%
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5 → 6.5
93%TICKETS7%
97%MONEY3%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTL
BUF
MTL
BUF
ML
67% 10-5
80% 12-3
40% 6-9
40% 6-9
ATS
33% 5-10
47% 7-8
87% 13-2
73% 11-4
TTL
33% 5-10
53% 8-7
40% 6-9
47% 7-8
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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