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PITTSBURGH

PENGUINSPIT

3-4-1  |  Road

2
FINAL
Fri, Oct 16 • 9:00 PM ET
Ball Arena
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

AVALANCHECOL

5-2-1  |  Home

5
Goaltending
Arturs Silovs
GOALTENDER

Arturs Silovs

#37 | Goaltender
@
Mackenzie Blackwood
GOALTENDER

Mackenzie Blackwood

#39 | Goaltender
Player W-L-OTL GAA SV% SO
Arturs Silovs None-None 5.22 0.844 --
Mackenzie Blackwood None-None 2.00 0.935 --
None-None W-L-OTL None-None
5.22 GAA Ldr 2.00
0.844 Save % Ldr 0.935
-- SO --
AI Model Win Probability
PENGUINS
24%
📊
AVALANCHE
76%
▲ Edge: +9.70% (COL)
PENGUINS 36% Book Odds: +177
AVALANCHE 67% Book Odds: -199
Book Implied: 36.10% / 66.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 6.5 59%
Under 6.5 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Pittsburgh)
PenguinsPIT (+1.5) 0 AvalancheCOL (-1.5)
Pittsburgh Penguins (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Penguins Cover

75.8%

Avalanche Cover

24.2%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around PIT +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

PIT By 1 goal

9.8%

PIT By 2-3 goals

6.6%

COL By 1 goal

19.4%

COL By 2-3 goals

33.3%

AI Model Projected Score
2.8
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 2.50
4.2
COLORADO
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
3
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 2.50
4
COLORADO
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Avalanche Win
76% Win Prob
A
Sim Avalanche Win
69% Win Prob
A
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Penguins (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: +1.4
D
Sim Penguins (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o6.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Sim o6.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 16, 2026 PIT @ COL 2 - 5
Mar 24, 2026 COL @ PIT 6 - 2
Mar 4, 2025 PIT @ COL 1 - 4
Dec 10, 2024 COL @ PIT 6 - 2
Mar 24, 2024 PIT @ COL 4 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +46.1% more
Colorado: 18.2 vs Pittsburgh: 12.5
Blocked Shots (L5) +21.6% more
Colorado: 15.5 vs Pittsburgh: 12.8
Shots on Goal (L5) +8.9% more
Colorado: 28.8 vs Pittsburgh: 26.4
Power Play % (L5) +7.8%
Colorado: 14.4% vs Pittsburgh: 6.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 2.8 2
COL Score 4.2 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots 15.5 / 12.8 13.0 / 14.0
Faceoff % 45.8 / 46.9 59.6 / 40.4
Hits 18.2 / 12.5 12.0 / 14.0
Power Play % 14.4 / 6.6 25.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal 28.8 / 26.4 32.0 / 31.0
Takeaways 3.7 / 4.7 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +200 / -245 → +177 / -199 ↓
9%TICKETS91%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
39%TICKETS61%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5 → 6.5
92%TICKETS8%
90%MONEY10%
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
PIT
COL
PIT
ML
56% 9-7
80% 12-3
50% 8-8
53% 8-7
ATS
56% 9-7
53% 8-7
50% 8-8
73% 11-4
TTL
25% 4-12
33% 5-10
81% 13-3
47% 7-8
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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