Home / MLB Projections MLB / Guardians @ Rays CLE @ TB

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

85-77  |  Road

3
FINAL
Mon, Oct 19 • 8:00 PM ET
Tropicana Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

98-64  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Shawn Armstrong
STARTING PITCHER

Shawn Armstrong

#43 | Relief Pitcher
@
Freddy Peralta
STARTING PITCHER

Freddy Peralta

#51 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Shawn Armstrong 0-0 0.00 0.26 7.2 6
Freddy Peralta 1-0 0.79 0.97 11.1 9
0-0 W-L 1-0
0.00 Ldr ERA 0.79
0.26 Ldr WHIP 0.97
7.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 11.1
6 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 9
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
34%
📊
RAYS
66%
▲ Edge: +6.40% (TB)
GUARDIANS 42% Book Odds: +136
RAYS 60% Book Odds: -148
Book Implied: 42.40% / 59.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 (Over)
Over 7.0 65%
Under 7.0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Tampa Bay)
GuardiansCLE (+1.5) 0 RaysTB (-1.5)
Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Guardians Cover

30.9%

Rays Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

CLE By 1-2 runs

13.6%

CLE By 3-4 runs

7.8%

TB By 1-2 runs

19.6%

TB By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3.2
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 2.80
5.2
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
3
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 2.80
4
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rays Win
66% Win Prob
B
Sim Rays Win
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rays (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Guardians (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o7.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.4
A
Sim u7.0 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 19, 2026 CLE @ TB 3 - 7
Oct 18, 2026 TB @ CLE 3 - 1
Oct 17, 2026 TB @ CLE 7 - 3
Oct 15, 2026 TB @ CLE 2 - 3
Oct 13, 2026 CLE @ TB 1 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland CLE
vs
Tampa Bay TB
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲ 4.54
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.696
OPS
▲ .728
162
Home Runs
▲ 169
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +31.8% more
Tampa Bay: 9.0 vs Cleveland: 6.9
Total Bases (L5) +31.1% more
Tampa Bay: 12.4 vs Cleveland: 9.5
Strikeouts (L5) +19.9% more
Tampa Bay: 8.7 vs Cleveland: 7.2
Runs per Game (Season) +8.4% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5 vs Cleveland: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 3.2 3
TB Score 5.2 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.0 / 6.9 7.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.4 / 0.6 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.7 / 7.2 3.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 12.4 / 9.5 14.0 / 9.0
Walks 2.1 / 2.6 6.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +113 / -137 → +136 / -148 ↑
17%TICKETS83%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
15%TICKETS85%
17%MONEY83%
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5 → 7 ↑
78%TICKETS22%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
90-83-0 (52.0%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
106-70-0 (60.2%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(49.7%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
(54.0%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
84-88-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
TB
81-89-6
O: 47.7% / U: 52.3% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
CLE
TB
CLE
ML
60% 37-25
59% 34-24
48% 30-32
40% 23-35
ATS
48% 30-32
52% 30-28
52% 32-30
52% 30-28
TTL
44% 26-33-3
59% 33-23-2
46% 27-32-3
34% 19-37-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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