Home / MLB Projections MLB / Rays @ Guardians TB @ CLE

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

98-64  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 8:00 PM ET
Progressive Field
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

85-77  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Nick Martinez
STARTING PITCHER

Nick Martinez

#28 | Starting Pitcher
@
Shawn Armstrong
STARTING PITCHER

Shawn Armstrong

#43 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Nick Martinez 0-0 4.91 1.64 3.2 3
Shawn Armstrong 0-0 0.00 0.19 5.1 5
0-0 W-L 0-0
4.91 ERA Ldr 0.00
1.64 WHIP Ldr 0.19
3.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 5.1
3 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
35%
📊
GUARDIANS
65%
▲ Edge: +14.70% (CLE)
RAYS 52% Book Odds: -108
GUARDIANS 50% Book Odds: +100
Book Implied: 51.90% / 50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 (Over)
Over 6.5 71%
Under 6.5 29%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 points (Cleveland)
RaysTB (-1.5) 0 GuardiansCLE (+1.5)
Cleveland Guardians (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rays Cover

30.9%

Guardians Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

TB By 1-2 runs

13.6%

TB By 3-4 runs

7.8%

CLE By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CLE By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3.2
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4
5.2
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 2.50
Simulated Score
4
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4
3
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 2.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Guardians Loss
65% Win Prob
B
Sim Rays Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Guardians (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Sim Guardians (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o6.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.4
A
Sim o6.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 19, 2026 CLE @ TB 3 - 7
Oct 18, 2026 TB @ CLE 3 - 1
Oct 17, 2026 TB @ CLE 7 - 3
Oct 15, 2026 TB @ CLE 2 - 3
Oct 13, 2026 CLE @ TB 1 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay TB
vs
Cleveland CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.54 ▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.728 ▲
OPS
.696
169 ▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +86.5% more
Cleveland: 2.9 vs Tampa Bay: 1.6
Home Runs (L5) +46.0% more
Cleveland: 1.0 vs Tampa Bay: 0.5
Hits (L5) +31.5% more
Cleveland: 7.7 vs Tampa Bay: 5.9
Total Bases (L5) +27.5% more
Cleveland: 12.1 vs Tampa Bay: 9.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 3.2 7
CLE Score 5.2 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.1 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.7 / 5.9 8.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 0.5 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.0 / 9.0 6.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 12.1 / 9.5 11.0 / 16.0
Walks 2.9 / 1.6 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -110 / -110 → -108 / +100 ↓
66%TICKETS34%
71%MONEY29%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
78%TICKETS22%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: 6.5 → 6.5
91%TICKETS9%
90%MONEY10%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB Advantage
106-70-0 (60.2%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-:
CLE
90-83-0 (52.0%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB Advantage
(54.0%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-:
CLE
(49.7%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
81-89-6
O: 47.7% / U: 52.3% Total +/-: +0.6
CLE
84-88-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
TB
CLE
TB
ML
59% 34-24
60% 37-25
40% 23-35
48% 30-32
ATS
52% 30-28
48% 30-32
52% 30-28
52% 32-30
TTL
59% 33-23-2
44% 26-33-3
34% 19-37-2
46% 27-32-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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