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TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

98-64  |  Road

2
FINAL
Thu, Oct 15 • 1:00 PM ET
Progressive Field
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

85-77  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Griffin Jax
STARTING PITCHER

Griffin Jax

#22 | Starting Pitcher
@
Gavin Williams
STARTING PITCHER

Gavin Williams

#32 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Griffin Jax 0-0 4.50 1.00 2.0 4
Gavin Williams 1-0 1.54 0.94 11.2 24
0-0 W-L 1-0
4.50 ERA Ldr 1.54
1.00 WHIP Ldr 0.94
2.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 11.2
4 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 24
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
33%
📊
GUARDIANS
67%
▲ Edge: +12% (CLE)
RAYS 47% Book Odds: +112
GUARDIANS 55% Book Odds: -121
Book Implied: 47.20% / 54.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 (Over)
Over 6.5 71%
Under 6.5 29%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Cleveland)
RaysTB (+1.5) 0 GuardiansCLE (-1.5)
Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rays Cover

30.9%

Guardians Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

TB By 1-2 runs

13.6%

TB By 3-4 runs

7.8%

CLE By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CLE By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3.2
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 2.50
5.2
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
4
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 2.50
3
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Guardians Win
67% Win Prob
B
Sim Rays Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Guardians (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Sim Rays (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.4
A
Sim o6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 19, 2026 CLE @ TB 3 - 7
Oct 18, 2026 TB @ CLE 3 - 1
Oct 17, 2026 TB @ CLE 7 - 3
Oct 15, 2026 TB @ CLE 2 - 3
Oct 13, 2026 CLE @ TB 1 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay TB
vs
Cleveland CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.54 ▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.728 ▲
OPS
.696
169 ▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +83.2% more
Cleveland: 3.4 vs Tampa Bay: 1.8
Total Bases (L5) +22.6% more
Cleveland: 13.2 vs Tampa Bay: 10.7
Errors (L5) +22.0% more
Cleveland: 0.4 vs Tampa Bay: 0.2
Home Runs (L5) +18.0% more
Cleveland: 0.9 vs Tampa Bay: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 3.2 2
CLE Score 5.2 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.5 / 7.3 6.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 0.7 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.0 / 7.0 8.0 / 13.0
Total Bases 13.2 / 10.7 10.0 / 7.0
Walks 3.4 / 1.8 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +110 / -133 → +112 / -121 ↓
49%TICKETS51%
63%MONEY37%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
32%TICKETS68%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7 → 6.5 ↓
78%TICKETS22%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB Advantage
106-70-0 (60.2%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-:
CLE
90-83-0 (52.0%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB Advantage
(54.0%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-:
CLE
(49.7%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
81-89-6
O: 47.7% / U: 52.3% Total +/-: +0.6
CLE
84-88-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
TB
CLE
TB
ML
54% 92-77
59% 102-72
49% 84-86
59% 103-71
ATS
57% 97-72
58% 101-73
57% 97-73
54% 94-80
TTL
55% 92-75-2
47% 78-87-9
43% 72-95-2
51% 83-81-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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