CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
85-77 | Road
1
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
98-64 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Parker Messick
#77 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Freddy Peralta
#51 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Messick | 0-1 | 5.40 | 1.80 | 6.2 | 11 |
| Freddy Peralta | 0-0 | 1.93 | 0.86 | 4.2 | 3 |
0-1
W-L
0-0
5.40
ERA
Ldr 1.93
1.80
WHIP
Ldr 0.86
6.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
4.2
11 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
33%
RAYS
67%
▲ Edge: +10% (TB)
GUARDIANS
46%
Book Odds: +117
RAYS
57%
Book Odds: -131
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.5 (Over)
Over 6.5
74%
Under 6.5
26%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
CLE By 1-2 runs
13.6%
CLE By 3-4 runs
7.8%
TB By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TB By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
3.5
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 2.50
Tampa Bay
5.5
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 2.50
Tampa Bay
2
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Rays
Win
67% Win Prob
B
Sim
Guardians
Loss
77% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rays (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Guardians (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Sim
o6.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 19, 2026
CLE @ TB
3 - 7
Oct 18, 2026
TB @ CLE
3 - 1
Oct 17, 2026
TB @ CLE
7 - 3
Oct 15, 2026
TB @ CLE
2 - 3
Oct 13, 2026
CLE @ TB
1 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
162
Games Played
162
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
4.54
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.696
OPS
▲
.728
162
Home Runs
▲
169
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+17.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.3
vs
Cleveland: 0.1
Runs per Game (Season)
+8.4% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5
vs
Cleveland: 4.2
Home Runs (Season)
+4.3% more
Tampa Bay: 169.0
vs
Cleveland: 162.0
OPS (Season)
+3.2%
Tampa Bay: 72.8%
vs
Cleveland: 69.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
3.5
1
TB Score
5.5
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.1
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.4 / 9.8
7.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.4
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.5 / 7.5
6.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
12.1 / 16.2
8.0 / 7.0
Walks
1.8 / 3.6
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +139 / -169
→
+117 / -131
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7
→
6.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
90-83-0
(52.0%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
106-70-0
(60.2%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(49.7%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(54.0%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
84-88-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
TB
81-89-6
O: 47.7% / U: 52.3%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
CLE
TB
CLE
ML
59%
102-72
54%
92-77
59%
103-71
49%
84-86
ATS
58%
101-73
57%
97-72
54%
94-80
57%
97-73
TTL
47%
78-87-9
55%
92-75-2
51%
83-81-10
43%
72-95-2
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