Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Valencia vs Athletic Valencia vs Athletic

VALENCIAVALENCIA

2-3-6  |  Home

0
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 3:00 PM ET
Mestalla Stadium

ATHLETICATHLETIC

4-3-3  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
VALENCIA
35%
DRAW
31%
ATHLETIC
35%
▲ Edge: +9.20% (Athletic Club)
33% Book Odds: +205
DRAW --
41% Book Odds: +145
Book Implied: 32.80% / % / 40.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 2.5 39%
Under 2.5 61%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
VALENCIA
Book Goal Line
+0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Valencia)
ValenciaValencia (+0.5) 0 AthleticAthletic (-0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

36.8% / 63.2%

Shots (On Goal)

16(3) / 9(2)

Corners

2 / 6

Cards (Y/R)

3/0 - 3/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Valencia 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Valencia)

Valencia By 1 goal

21.1%

Valencia By 2+ goals

15.9%

Athletic Club By 1 goal

21.1%

Athletic Club By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
VALENCIA
Book Implied: 1
1
ATHLETIC
Book Implied: 1.50
Simulated Score
0
VALENCIA
Book Implied: 1
1
ATHLETIC
Book Implied: 1.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Draw Win
38% Win Prob
B
Sim Athletic Club Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Valencia (+0.25) Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
D
Sim Athletic Club (-0.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u2.25 Win
Proj Total: 2.0
C
Sim u2.5 Win
Proj Total: 1.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 Valencia vs Athletic 0 - 0
Sep 20, 2025 Valencia vs Athletic 2 - 0
May 18, 2025 Valencia vs Athletic 0 - 1
Aug 28, 2024 Athletic vs Valencia 1 - 0
Jan 20, 2024 Valencia vs Athletic 1 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Goals Conceded (L5) +266.7% more
Athletic: 3.0 vs Valencia: 11.0
Losses (L5) +200.0% more
Athletic: 1.0 vs Valencia: 3.0
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Athletic: 2.0 vs Valencia: 1.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Athletic: 2.0 vs Valencia: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Athletic Club Score 1.0 0
Valencia Score 1.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
Valencia (Home) vs Athletic Club (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Valencia Share: 50.0% Athletic Club Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Valencia
Athletic Club
Valencia
Athletic Club
ML
64% 7-4
80% 8-2
27% 3-8
30% 3-7
ATS
86% 9-1
50% 5-5
52% 5-5
40% 4-6
TTL
36% 4-7
70% 7-3
64% 7-4
70% 7-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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