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BETISBETIS

7-2-2  |  Home

2
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 12:30 PM ET
Estadio La Cartuja

BARCELONABARCELONA

10-0-1  |  Away

5
AI Model Win Probability
BETIS
18%
DRAW
21%
BARCELONA
61%
▲ Edge: +23% (Real Betis)
17% Book Odds: +500
DRAW --
70% Book Odds: -235
Book Implied: 16.70% / % / 70.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
4.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.5 (Under)
Over 4.5 22%
Under 4.5 78%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
+1.0
BETIS
Book Goal Line
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Betis)
BetisBetis (+1.5) 0 BarcelonaBarcelona (-1.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

30.7% / 69.3%

Shots (On Goal)

6(5) / 18(10)

Corners

2 / 5

Cards (Y/R)

3/1 - 2/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

25.2%

Cover

74.8%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Real Betis +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Real Betis)

Real Betis By 1 goal

11.1%

Real Betis By 2+ goals

4.8%

Barcelona By 1 goal

26.1%

Barcelona By 2+ goals

36.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
BETIS
Book Implied: 1.50
2
BARCELONA
Book Implied: 3
Simulated Score
1
BETIS
Book Implied: 1.50
3
BARCELONA
Book Implied: 3
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Barcelona Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Barcelona Win
83% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Real Betis (+1.25) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
C
Sim Barcelona (-1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u4.0 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
A
Sim u4.5 Loss
Proj Total: 4.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 Betis vs Barcelona 2 - 5
Dec 6, 2025 Betis vs Barcelona 3 - 5
Apr 5, 2025 Barcelona vs Betis 1 - 1
Dec 7, 2024 Betis vs Barcelona 2 - 2
Jan 21, 2024 Betis vs Barcelona 2 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +75.0% more
Barcelona: 21.0 vs Betis: 12.0
Wins (L5) +25.0% more
Barcelona: 5.0 vs Betis: 4.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Betis: 1.0 vs Barcelona: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Barcelona Score 2.0 5
Real Betis Score 1.0 2
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 18.3% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 60.6%
Real Betis (Home) vs Barcelona (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Real Betis Share: 33.3% Barcelona Share: 66.7%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Real Betis
Barcelona
Real Betis
Barcelona
ML
64% 7-4
91% 10-1
36% 4-7
91% 10-1
ATS
55% 6-5
36% 4-7
36% 4-7
91% 10-1
TTL
73% 8-3
18% 2-9
36% 4-7
45% 5-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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