Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Villarreal vs Elche Villarreal vs Elche

VILLARREALVILLARREAL

2-3-4  |  Home

0
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 10:15 AM ET
Estadio de la Cerámica

ELCHEELCHE

1-4-4  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
VILLARREAL
61%
DRAW
21%
ELCHE
18%
▲ Edge: +24.50% (Elche)
69% Book Odds: -225
DRAW --
15% Book Odds: +550
Book Implied: 69.20% / % / 15.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 3.5 34%
Under 3.5 66%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
+1.0
ELCHE
Book Goal Line
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Elche)
VillarrealVillarreal (-1.5) 0 ElcheElche (+1.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

57.6% / 42.4%

Shots (On Goal)

20(7) / 7(1)

Corners

10 / 5

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 4/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Elche +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Elche)

Villarreal By 1 goal

26.1%

Villarreal By 2+ goals

36.9%

Elche By 1 goal

11.1%

Elche By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
VILLARREAL
Book Implied: 2.50
1
ELCHE
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
3
VILLARREAL
Book Implied: 2.50
0
ELCHE
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Villarreal Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Villarreal Loss
94% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Elche (+1.25) Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
C
Sim Villarreal (-1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u3.25 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
B
Sim u3.5 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 Villarreal vs Elche 0 - 0
Mar 8, 2026 Villarreal vs Elche 2 - 1
Jan 3, 2026 Elche vs Villarreal 1 - 3
Feb 4, 2023 Elche vs Villarreal 3 - 1
Sep 4, 2022 Villarreal vs Elche 4 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +200.0% more
Villarreal: 3.0 vs Elche: 1.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +33.3% more
Villarreal: 6.0 vs Elche: 8.0
Goals Scored (L5) +25.0% more
Villarreal: 10.0 vs Elche: 8.0
Draws (L5) +200.0% more
Elche: 2.0 vs Villarreal: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Elche Score 1.0 0
Villarreal Score 2.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Villarreal (Home) vs Elche (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Villarreal Share: 66.7% Elche Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Villarreal
Elche
Villarreal
Elche
ML
33% 3-6
44% 4-5
33% 3-6
33% 3-6
ATS
78% 7-2
78% 7-2
22% 2-7
56% 5-4
TTL
67% 6-3
56% 5-4
44% 4-5
78% 7-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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