Home / LALIGA Projections LALIGA / Espanyol vs Atlético Espanyol vs Atlético

ESPANYOLESPANYOL

2-2-4  |  Home

0
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 8:00 AM ET
RCDE Stadium

ATLÉTICOATLÉTICO

6-1-1  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
ESPANYOL
18%
DRAW
21%
ATLÉTICO
61%
▲ Edge: +8.60% (Atlético Madrid)
20% Book Odds: +400
DRAW --
59% Book Odds: -145
Book Implied: 20% / % / 59.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 2.5 59%
Under 2.5 41%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
ATLÉTICO
Book Goal Line
-0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Atlético)
EspanyolEspanyol (+0.5) 0 AtléticoAtlético (-0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

29.4% / 70.6%

Shots (On Goal)

10(2) / 19(6)

Corners

4 / 12

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 5/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

25.2%

Cover

74.8%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Atlético Madrid -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Atlético Madrid)

Espanyol By 1 goal

11.1%

Espanyol By 2+ goals

4.8%

Atlético Madrid By 1 goal

26.1%

Atlético Madrid By 2+ goals

36.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
ESPANYOL
Book Implied: 1
2
ATLÉTICO
Book Implied: 1.50
Simulated Score
0
ESPANYOL
Book Implied: 1
1
ATLÉTICO
Book Implied: 1.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Atlético Madrid Win
68% Win Prob
B
Sim Atlético Madrid Win
54% Win Prob
D
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Atlético Madrid (-0.75) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Sim Atlético Madrid (-0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o2.75 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim u2.5 Win
Proj Total: 1.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 Espanyol vs Atlético 0 - 1
Feb 21, 2026 Atlético vs Espanyol 4 - 2
Aug 17, 2025 Espanyol vs Atlético 2 - 1
Mar 29, 2025 Espanyol vs Atlético 1 - 1
Aug 28, 2024 Atlético vs Espanyol 0 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Wins (L5) +400.0% more
Atlético: 5.0 vs Espanyol: 1.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +250.0% more
Atlético: 2.0 vs Espanyol: 7.0
Losses (L5) +200.0% more
Atlético: 0.0 vs Espanyol: 2.0
Goals Scored (L5) +116.7% more
Atlético: 13.0 vs Espanyol: 6.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Atlético Madrid Score 2.0 1
Espanyol Score 1.0 0
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 18.3% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 60.6%
Espanyol (Home) vs Atlético Madrid (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Espanyol Share: 33.3% Atlético Madrid Share: 66.7%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Espanyol
Atlético Madrid
Espanyol
Atlético Madrid
ML
67% 6-3
67% 6-3
44% 4-5
44% 4-5
ATS
75% 6-2-1
56% 5-4
38% 3-5-1
53% 4-4
TTL
47% 3-4-1
44% 4-5
60% 4-3-1
44% 4-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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