Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Cruz Azul vs Juárez Cruz Azul vs Juárez

CRUZ AZULCRUZ AZUL

9-2-4  |  Home

5
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 11:10 PM ET
Estadio Banorte

JUÁREZJUÁREZ

2-2-11  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
CRUZ AZUL
61%
DRAW
21%
JUÁREZ
18%
▲ Edge: +45.20% (FC Juárez)
77% Book Odds: -342
DRAW 17% Book Odds: +501
10% Book Odds: +923
Book Implied: 77.40% / 16.60% / 9.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.25
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.3 (Under)
Over 3.25 30%
Under 3.25 70%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
+1.0
JUÁREZ
Book Goal Line
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Juárez)
Cruz AzulCruz Azul (-1.5) 0 JuárezJuárez (+1.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

57.1% / 42.9%

Shots (On Goal)

15(9) / 10(4)

Corners

2 / 8

Cards (Y/R)

1/0 - 4/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around FC Juárez +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FC Juárez)

Cruz Azul By 1 goal

26.1%

Cruz Azul By 2+ goals

36.9%

FC Juárez By 1 goal

11.1%

FC Juárez By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
CRUZ AZUL
Book Implied: 2.40
1
JUÁREZ
Book Implied: 0.90
Simulated Score
3
CRUZ AZUL
Book Implied: 2.40
0
JUÁREZ
Book Implied: 0.90
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cruz Azul Win
45% Win Prob
D
Sim Cruz Azul Win
94% Win Prob
A
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI FC Juárez (+1.5) Loss
Proj Goals: +1.0
B
Sim Cruz Azul (-1.5) Win
Proj Goals: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u3.25 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
B
Sim u3.3 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 Cruz Azul vs Juárez 5 - 0
Jan 30, 2026 Juárez vs Cruz Azul 3 - 4
Sep 19, 2025 Cruz Azul vs Juárez 3 - 2
Jan 18, 2025 Juárez vs Cruz Azul 1 - 0
Oct 23, 2024 Cruz Azul vs Juárez 4 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Cruz Azul: 2.0 vs Juárez: 1.0
Goals Scored (L5) +20.0% more
Cruz Azul: 6.0 vs Juárez: 5.0
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
Juárez: 1.0 vs Cruz Azul: 0.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +80.0% more
Juárez: 5.0 vs Cruz Azul: 9.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FC Juárez Score 1.0 0
Cruz Azul Score 2.0 5
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Cruz Azul (Home) vs FC Juárez (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Cruz Azul Share: 66.7% FC Juárez Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Cruz Azul
FC Juárez
Cruz Azul
FC Juárez
ML
67% 10-5
53% 8-7
60% 9-6
67% 10-5
ATS
50% 7-7-1
42% 5-7-3
56% 7-6-1
69% 9-4-2
TTL
44% 5-7-2
43% 6-8-1
56% 7-6-1
64% 9-5-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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