TOLUCATOLUCA
6-6-3 | Home
1
ATL. SAN LUISATL. SAN LUIS
5-4-6 | Away
1
AI Model Win Probability
TOLUCA
61%
DRAW
21%
ATL. SAN LUIS
18%
▲ Edge: +44.50% (Atlético de San Luis)
76%
Book Odds: -321
DRAW
17%
Book Odds: +504
11%
Book Odds: +805
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
3.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 3.5
35%
Under 3.5
65%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
+1.0
ATL. SAN LUIS
Book Goal Line
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Atl. San Luis)
Soccer Match Statistics
Possession
70.6% / 29.4%
Shots (On Goal)
29(7) / 15(5)
Corners
15 / 2
Cards (Y/R)
0/0 - 0/0
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+4.5+3+1.50-1.5-3-4.5
Distribution centered around Atlético de San Luis +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Atlético de San Luis)
Toluca By 1 goal
26.1%
Toluca By 2+ goals
36.9%
Atlético de San Luis By 1 goal
11.1%
Atlético de San Luis By 2+ goals
4.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Toluca
2
TOLUCA
Book Implied: 2.50
Atl. San Luis
1
ATL. SAN LUIS
Book Implied: 1
Simulated Score
Toluca
2
TOLUCA
Book Implied: 2.50
Atl. San Luis
1
ATL. SAN LUIS
Book Implied: 1
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Toluca
Loss
45% Win Prob
D
Sim
Toluca
Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Atlético de San Luis (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
B
Sim
Atlético de San Luis (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
u3.5
Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim
u3.5
Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 17, 2026
Toluca vs Atl. San Luis
1 - 1
Apr 12, 2026
Toluca vs Atl. San Luis
1 - 1
Aug 29, 2025
Atl. San Luis vs Toluca
1 - 3
Apr 16, 2025
Atl. San Luis vs Toluca
0 - 1
Aug 25, 2024
Toluca vs Atl. San Luis
2 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Draws (L5)
+100.0% more
Toluca: 1.0
vs
Atl. San Luis: 0.0
Goals Scored (L5)
+14.3% more
Toluca: 8.0
vs
Atl. San Luis: 7.0
Wins (L5)
+100.0% more
Atl. San Luis: 2.0
vs
Toluca: 1.0
Goals Conceded (L5)
+28.6% more
Atl. San Luis: 7.0
vs
Toluca: 9.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
Atlético de San Luis Score
1.0
1
Toluca Score
2.0
1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Toluca (Home)
vs
Atlético de San Luis (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Book Line: 2.5 Goals
AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
AI Projected Score
2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Toluca
Atlético de San Luis
Toluca
Atlético de San Luis
ML
40%
6-9
27%
4-11
40%
6-9
40%
6-9
ATS
58%
7-5-2
64%
9-5-1
75%
9-3-2
62%
8-5-2
TTL
36%
5-9-1
42%
5-7
62%
8-5-1
67%
8-4