Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / León vs América León vs América

LEÓNLEÓN

6-4-5  |  Home

3
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 9:00 PM ET
Estadio León

AMÉRICAAMÉRICA

8-5-2  |  Away

5
AI Model Win Probability
LEÓN
35%
DRAW
31%
AMÉRICA
35%
▲ Edge: +3.90% (América)
29% Book Odds: +243
DRAW 28% Book Odds: +256
46% Book Odds: +117
Book Implied: 29.20% / 28.10% / 46.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
2.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.8 (Under)
Over 2.75 49%
Under 2.75 51%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
0.0
LEÓN
Book Goal Line
+0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 goals (León)
LeónLeón (+0.2) 0 AméricaAmérica (-0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

54.8% / 45.2%

Shots (On Goal)

13(7) / 15(10)

Corners

7 / 2

Cards (Y/R)

4/0 - 4/0

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

50.0%

Cover

50.0%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around León 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (León)

León By 1 goal

21.1%

León By 2+ goals

15.9%

América By 1 goal

21.1%

América By 2+ goals

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
1
LEÓN
Book Implied: 1.20
1
AMÉRICA
Book Implied: 1.50
Simulated Score
1
LEÓN
Book Implied: 1.20
2
AMÉRICA
Book Implied: 1.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Draw Loss
37% Win Prob
B
Sim América Win
62% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI León (+0.25) Win
Proj Goals: 0.0
D
Sim América (-0.25) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u2.75 Loss
Proj Total: 2.0
D
Sim o2.8 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 León vs América 3 - 5
Apr 21, 2026 León vs América 2 - 3
Feb 7, 2026 América vs León 1 - 0
Nov 29, 2025 América vs León 2 - 1
Nov 26, 2025 León vs América 2 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +16.7% more
América: 7.0 vs León: 6.0
Goals Conceded (L5) +133.3% more
León: 3.0 vs América: 7.0
Wins (L5) +100.0% more
León: 2.0 vs América: 1.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
León: 0.0 vs América: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
América Score 1.0 5
León Score 1.0 3
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 34.6% Draw: 30.9% Away Win: 34.6%
León (Home) vs América (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 32.3% Under 2.5: 67.7%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 2.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
León Share: 50.0% América Share: 50.0%
AI Projected Score 1.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
León
América
León
América
ML
40% 6-9
40% 6-9
33% 5-10
60% 9-6
ATS
64% 7-4-3
54% 7-6-1
30% 3-7-3
75% 9-3-2
TTL
38% 5-8
50% 7-7-1
46% 6-7
71% 10-4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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