Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Guadalajara vs Tigres Guadalajara vs Tigres

GUADALAJARAGUADALAJARA

5-4-2  |  Home

1
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 7:07 PM ET
Estadio Akron

TIGRESTIGRES

3-5-4  |  Away

1
AI Model Win Probability
GUADALAJARA
61%
DRAW
21%
TIGRES
18%
▲ Edge: +34.60% (Tigres UANL)
52% Book Odds: -110
DRAW 29% Book Odds: +251
23% Book Odds: +344
Book Implied: 52.40% / 28.50% / 22.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 55%
Under 2.75 45%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
GUADALAJARA
Book Goal Line
-0.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 goals (Guadalajara)
GuadalajaraGuadalajara (-0.5) 0 TigresTigres (+0.5)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

68.7% / 31.3%

Shots (On Goal)

30(6) / 7(3)

Corners

10 / 6

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 0/1

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Guadalajara -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Guadalajara)

Guadalajara By 1 goal

26.1%

Guadalajara By 2+ goals

36.9%

Tigres UANL By 1 goal

11.1%

Tigres UANL By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
GUADALAJARA
Book Implied: 1.60
1
TIGRES
Book Implied: 1.10
Simulated Score
2
GUADALAJARA
Book Implied: 1.60
1
TIGRES
Book Implied: 1.10
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Guadalajara Loss
43% Win Prob
D
Sim Guadalajara Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Guadalajara (-0.5) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim Guadalajara (-0.5) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.75 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim o2.8 Loss
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 Guadalajara vs Tigres 1 - 1
Feb 25, 2023 Tigres vs Guadalajara 1 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Goals Scored (L5) +60.0% more
Guadalajara: 8.0 vs Tigres: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Tigres UANL Score 1.0 1
Guadalajara Score 2.0 1
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Guadalajara (Home) vs Tigres UANL (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Guadalajara Share: 66.7% Tigres UANL Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Guadalajara
Tigres UANL
Guadalajara
Tigres UANL
ML
50% 6-6
33% 4-8
50% 6-6
8% 1-11
ATS
89% 8-1-3
68% 7-3-1
44% 4-5-3
33% 3-7-1
TTL
77% 8-2-1
25% 3-9
45% 5-6-1
42% 5-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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