Home / Liga MX Projections Liga MX / Santos vs Queretaro Santos vs Queretaro

SANTOSSANTOS

7-1-7  |  Home

5
FINAL
Sat, Oct 17 • 7:00 PM ET
Estadio Corona

QUERETAROQUERETARO

6-2-6  |  Away

0
AI Model Win Probability
SANTOS
61%
DRAW
21%
QUERETARO
18%
▲ Edge: +6.10% (Querétaro)
44% Book Odds: +125
DRAW 28% Book Odds: +261
31% Book Odds: +221
Book Implied: 44.40% / 27.70% / 31.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
3.0
Projected
Book Total
2.75
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 2.75 58%
Under 2.75 42%
AI Model Goal Line Expectation
AI Goal Line Proj
-1.0
SANTOS
Book Goal Line
-0.25
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 goals (Santos)
SantosSantos (-0.2) 0 QueretaroQueretaro (+0.2)
Model Expected Goal Line
Soccer Match Statistics

Possession

58.6% / 41.4%

Shots (On Goal)

14(5) / 16(2)

Corners

3 / 1

Cards (Y/R)

2/0 - 2/1

Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cover

74.8%

Cover

25.2%

-4.5-3-1.50+1.5+3+4.5
Distribution centered around Santos -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (Santos)

Santos By 1 goal

26.1%

Santos By 2+ goals

36.9%

Querétaro By 1 goal

11.1%

Querétaro By 2+ goals

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
2
SANTOS
Book Implied: 1.50
1
QUERETARO
Book Implied: 1.20
Simulated Score
2
SANTOS
Book Implied: 1.50
1
QUERETARO
Book Implied: 1.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Santos Win
63% Win Prob
C
Sim Santos Win
61% Win Prob
C
Goal Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Santos (-0.25) Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Sim Santos (-0.25) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o2.75 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Sim o2.8 Win
Proj Total: 3.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 17, 2026 Santos vs Queretaro 5 - 0
Feb 27, 2026 Queretaro vs Santos 2 - 2
Oct 26, 2025 Santos vs Queretaro 3 - 1
Apr 13, 2025 Santos vs Queretaro 1 - 2
Nov 8, 2024 Queretaro vs Santos 3 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Goals Conceded (L5) +150.0% more
Queretaro: 2.0 vs Santos: 5.0
Draws (L5) +100.0% more
Queretaro: 1.0 vs Santos: 0.0
Losses (L5) +100.0% more
Queretaro: 0.0 vs Santos: 1.0
Goals Scored (L5) +12.5% more
Queretaro: 9.0 vs Santos: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
Querétaro Score 1.0 0
Santos Score 2.0 5
AI Simulated Match Splits
3-Way Result Probability
Home Win: 60.6% Draw: 21.2% Away Win: 18.3%
Santos (Home) vs Querétaro (Away)
Goals Expectation (O/U 2.5)
Over 2.5: 57.7% Under 2.5: 42.3%
Book Line: 2.5 Goals AI Predicted TTL: 3.00
Expected Goals (xG) Share
Santos Share: 66.7% Querétaro Share: 33.3%
AI Projected Score 2.0 - 1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
Santos
Querétaro
Santos
Querétaro
ML
53% 8-7
43% 6-8
73% 11-4
36% 5-9
ATS
37% 5-8-1
50% 6-6-2
71% 10-4-1
38% 5-8-1
TTL
68% 9-4-1
68% 8-4-1
57% 8-6-1
60% 7-5-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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