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NORTHERN ILLINOIS

N ILLINOISNIU

0-8  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Oct 31 • 10:30 PM ET
Allegiant Stadium
View Odds Details →

UNLV

UNLVUNLV

5-3  |  Home

31
Key Game
Jake Ference
KEY GAME

Jake Ference

#36 | Punter
@
Matt Choules
KEY GAME

Matt Choules

#26 | Punter
Player
Jake Ference None-None
Matt Choules None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
N ILLINOIS
11%
📊
UNLV
89%
▲ Edge: +2.70% (NIU)
N ILLINOIS 8% Book Odds: +1100
UNLV 95% Book Odds: -2083
Book Implied: 8.30% / 95.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
55.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +3.5 (Under)
Over 55.5 43%
Under 55.5 57%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
UNLV
Book Spread
-21.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (UNLV)
N IllinoisNIU (+21.5) 0 UNLVUNLV (-21.5)
UNLV Rebels (-21.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

N Illinois Cover

5.8%

UNLV Cover

94.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UNLV -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNLV)

NIU By 1-6 points

3.3%

NIU By 7-13 points

1.5%

UNLV By 1-6 points

7.2%

UNLV By 7-13 points

13.8%

AI Model Projected Score
15
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Book Implied: 17
37
UNLV
Book Implied: 38.50
Simulated Score
18
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Book Implied: 17
30
UNLV
Book Implied: 38.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI UNLV Win
89% Win Prob
A
Sim UNLV Win
88% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI UNLV (-21.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim N Illinois (+21.5) Win
Proj Spread: +12.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u55.5 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Sim u55.5 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 31, 2026 NIU @ UNLV 24 - 31
Sep 5, 2015 UNLV @ NIU 30 - 38
Sep 13, 2014 NIU @ UNLV 48 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +30.4% more
UNLV: 160.6 vs Northern Illinois: 123.1
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +24.0% more
UNLV: 0.5 vs Northern Illinois: 0.3
First Downs (L5) +15.2% more
UNLV: 19.7 vs Northern Illinois: 17.1
Total Yards (L5) +12.6% more
UNLV: 353.3 vs Northern Illinois: 313.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NIU Score 15.0 24
UNLV Score 37.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.7 / 17.1 22.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 160.6 / 123.1 204.0 / 240.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.45 / 0.53
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.41 / 0.59
Total Yards 353.3 / 313.7 473.0 / 493.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 2.2 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +1400 / -3226 → +1100 / -2083 ↓
2%TICKETS98%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +24.5 / -24.5 → +21.5 / -21.5 ↓
69%TICKETS31%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52.5 → 55.5 ↑
43%TICKETS57%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NIU
0-10-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -20.3 ATS +/-: -6.9
UNLV Advantage
6-4-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: -1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NIU
3-7-0 (30.0%)
Margin: -20.3 ATS +/-: -6.9
UNLV Advantage
5-5-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: -1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
NIU
4-6-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: +1.9
UNLV
3-7-0
O: 30.0% / U: 70.0% Total +/-: -2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNLV
NIU
UNLV
NIU
ML
40% 4-6
90% 9-1
50% 5-5
90% 9-1
ATS
30% 3-7
50% 5-5
70% 7-3
60% 6-4
TTL
40% 4-6
60% 6-4
30% 3-7
50% 5-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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