Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Texas St @ Boise St TXST @ BOIS

TEXAS STATE

TEXAS STTXST

4-4  |  Road

45
FINAL
Sat, Oct 31 • 10:00 PM ET
Albertsons Stadium
View Odds Details →

BOISE STATE

BOISE STBOIS

7-1  |  Home

46
Key Game
Tom Flintoff
KEY GAME

Tom Flintoff

#92 | Punter
@
Oscar Doyle
KEY GAME

Oscar Doyle

#37 | Punter
Player
Tom Flintoff None-None
Oscar Doyle None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXAS ST
26%
📊
BOISE ST
74%
▲ Edge: +2.20% (TXST)
TEXAS ST 24% Book Odds: +320
BOISE ST 80% Book Odds: -410
Book Implied: 23.80% / 80.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.0
Projected
Book Total
63.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +5.5 (Under)
Over 63.5 37%
Under 63.5 63%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
BOISE STATE
Book Spread
-10
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Boise State)
Texas StTXST (+10) 0 Boise StBOIS (-10)
Boise State Broncos (-10) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texas St Cover

21.6%

Boise St Cover

78.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BOIS -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOIS)

TXST By 1-6 points

10.0%

TXST By 7-13 points

6.6%

BOIS By 1-6 points

14.7%

BOIS By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
23.5
TEXAS STATE
Book Implied: 26.80
34.5
BOISE STATE
Book Implied: 36.80
Simulated Score
30
TEXAS STATE
Book Implied: 26.80
35
BOISE STATE
Book Implied: 36.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Boise St Win
74% Win Prob
A
Sim Boise St Win
68% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Boise St (-10) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Texas St (+10) Win
Proj Spread: +5.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u63.5 Loss
Proj Total: 58.0
B
Sim o63.5 Win
Proj Total: 65.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 31, 2026 TXST @ BOIS 45 - 46
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +50.0% more
Texas State: 0.9 vs Boise State: 0.4
First Downs (L5) +10.5% more
Texas State: 26.1 vs Boise State: 23.4
Total Yards (L5) +9.7% more
Texas State: 489.6 vs Boise State: 442.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TXST Score 23.5 45
BOIS Score 34.5 46
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.4 / 26.1 29.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 239.4 / 253.8 117.0 / 102.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.6 0.56 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.62 / 0.38
Total Yards 442.0 / 489.6 484.0 / 429.0
Turnovers 0.4 / 0.9 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +340 / -440 → +320 / -410 ↓
1%TICKETS99%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +12.5 / -12.5 → +10 / -10 ↓
30%TICKETS70%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: 65.5 → 63.5 ↓
35%TICKETS65%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TXST
6-4-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.8
BOIS Advantage
9-1-0 (90.0%)
Margin: 12.9 ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TXST
5-5-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +2.8
BOIS
5-5-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 12.9 ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
TXST
7-3-0
O: 70.0% / U: 30.0% Total +/-: +5.8
BOIS
8-2-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +9.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOIS
TXST
BOIS
TXST
ML
80% 8-2
70% 7-3
90% 9-1
70% 7-3
ATS
40% 4-6
30% 3-7
80% 8-2
30% 3-7
TTL
50% 5-5
40% 4-6
60% 6-4
50% 5-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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