Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Washington St @ San Diego St WSU @ SDSU

WASHINGTON STATE

WASHINGTON STWSU

1-8  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Oct 31 • 7:00 PM ET
Snapdragon Stadium
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO STATE

SAN DIEGO STSDSU

4-5  |  Home

26
Key Game
Jack Stevens
KEY GAME

Jack Stevens

#38 | Place kicker
@
Tashi Dorje
KEY GAME

Tashi Dorje

#89 | Punter
Player
Jack Stevens None-None
Tashi Dorje None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WASHINGTON ST
62%
📊
SAN DIEGO ST
38%
▲ Edge: +18.20% (WSU)
WASHINGTON ST 44% Book Odds: +126
SAN DIEGO ST 58% Book Odds: -140
Book Implied: 44.20% / 58.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.5
Projected
Book Total
48.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 (Over)
Over 48.0 56%
Under 48.0 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.5
WASHINGTON STATE
Book Spread
+2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Washington State)
Washington StWSU (+2.5) 0 San Diego StSDSU (-2.5)
Washington State Cougars (+2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Washington St Cover

65.3%

San Diego St Cover

34.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around WSU -5.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSU)

WSU By 1-6 points

16.8%

WSU By 7-13 points

18.8%

SDSU By 1-6 points

13.8%

SDSU By 7-13 points

10.8%

AI Model Projected Score
28
WASHINGTON STATE
Book Implied: 22.80
22.5
SAN DIEGO STATE
Book Implied: 25.20
Simulated Score
20
WASHINGTON STATE
Book Implied: 22.80
25
SAN DIEGO STATE
Book Implied: 25.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Washington St Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Sim San Diego St Win
68% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Washington St (+2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.5
A
Sim San Diego St (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o48.0 Loss
Proj Total: 50.5
C
Sim u48.0 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 31, 2026 WSU @ SDSU 20 - 26
Sep 6, 2025 SDSU @ WSU 13 - 36
Oct 26, 2024 WSU @ SDSU 29 - 26
Key Model Drivers
Time of Possession (L5) +8.0% more
Washington State: 0.5 vs San Diego State: 0.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +53.6% more
San Diego State: 161.5 vs Washington State: 105.2
Total Yards (L5) +23.9% more
San Diego State: 384.6 vs Washington State: 310.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSU Score 28.0 20
SDSU Score 22.5 26
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.9 / 19.2 18.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 161.5 / 105.2 202.0 / 68.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.45 / 0.64
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 384.6 / 310.3 306.0 / 367.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.4 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +105 / -125 → +126 / -140 ↑
16%TICKETS84%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +2.5 / -2.5 → +2.5 / -2.5
31%TICKETS69%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: 49.5 → 48 ↓
67%TICKETS33%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSU
2-8-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-: +3.4
SDSU Advantage
5-5-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.4 ATS +/-: -4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSU Advantage
6-4-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-: +3.4
SDSU
4-6-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -5.4 ATS +/-: -4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
WSU
4-6-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -0.7
SDSU
6-4-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SDSU
WSU
SDSU
WSU
ML
60% 6-4
60% 6-4
60% 6-4
100% 10-0
ATS
60% 6-4
50% 5-5
60% 6-4
70% 7-3
TTL
30% 3-7
30% 3-7
40% 4-6
30% 3-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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