Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / FIU @ Liberty FIU @ LIB

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

FIUFIU

3-5  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Oct 31 • 3:30 PM ET
Williams Stadium (VA)
View Odds Details →

LIBERTY

LIBERTYLIB

7-1  |  Home

49
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Felix Visser

#43 | Punter
@
Sam Crossan
KEY GAME

Sam Crossan

#49 | Place kicker
Player
Felix Visser None-None
Sam Crossan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FIU
30%
📊
LIBERTY
70%
▲ Edge: +10.90% (FIU)
FIU 19% Book Odds: +425
LIBERTY 85% Book Odds: -575
Book Implied: 19% / 85.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.0
Projected
Book Total
45.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 (Over)
Over 45.5 57%
Under 45.5 43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+9.0
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Book Spread
+14
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Florida International)
FIUFIU (+14) 0 LibertyLIB (-14)
Florida International Panthers (+14) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

FIU Cover

74.0%

Liberty Cover

26.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around FIU +9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FIU)

FIU By 1-6 points

11.5%

FIU By 7-13 points

8.0%

LIB By 1-6 points

15.7%

LIB By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
19.5
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Book Implied: 15.80
28.5
LIBERTY
Book Implied: 29.80
Simulated Score
17
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Book Implied: 15.80
30
LIBERTY
Book Implied: 29.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Liberty Win
70% Win Prob
A
Sim Liberty Win
90% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI FIU (+14) Loss
Proj Spread: +9.0
B
Sim FIU (+14) Loss
Proj Spread: +13.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o45.5 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Sim o45.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 31, 2026 FIU @ LIB 10 - 49
Nov 15, 2025 LIB @ FIU 27 - 34
Oct 8, 2024 FIU @ LIB 24 - 31
Sep 23, 2023 LIB @ FIU 38 - 6
Sep 26, 2020 FIU @ LIB 34 - 36
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +74.4% more
Liberty: 244.7 vs Florida International: 140.3
First Downs (L5) +22.5% more
Liberty: 21.9 vs Florida International: 17.9
Total Yards (L5) +17.3% more
Liberty: 420.1 vs Florida International: 358.3
Turnovers (L5) +53.5% more
Florida International: 1.0 vs Liberty: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FIU Score 19.5 10
LIB Score 28.5 49
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.9 / 17.9 24.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 244.7 / 140.3 145.0 / 34.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.62 / 0.2
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 420.1 / 358.3 391.0 / 210.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 1.0 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +409 / -558 → +425 / -575
1%TICKETS99%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +13.5 / -13.5 → +14 / -14 ↑
45%TICKETS55%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: 45.5 → 45.5
82%TICKETS18%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FIU
4-6-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: -4.6
LIB Advantage
9-1-0 (90.0%)
Margin: 18.3 ATS +/-: +6.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FIU
4-6-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: -4.6
LIB Advantage
7-3-0 (70.0%)
Margin: 18.3 ATS +/-: +6.4
⚖️ Over/Under
FIU
4-6-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -10.9
LIB
3-7-0
O: 30.0% / U: 70.0% Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LIB
FIU
LIB
FIU
ML
70% 7-3
90% 9-1
80% 8-2
90% 9-1
ATS
30% 3-7
33% 3-6-1
40% 4-6
44% 4-5-1
TTL
60% 6-4
80% 8-2
50% 5-5
80% 8-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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