Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Colorado St @ Utah State CSU @ USU

COLORADO STATE

COLORADO STCSU

3-5  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Oct 31 • 3:30 PM ET
Maverik Stadium
View Odds Details →

UTAH STATE

UTAH STATEUSU

3-5  |  Home

31
Key Game
Nathan Sutcliffe
KEY GAME

Nathan Sutcliffe

#39 | Punter
@
👤
KEY GAME

Will Evans

#-- | Punter
Player
Nathan Sutcliffe None-None
Will Evans None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COLORADO ST
36%
📊
UTAH STATE
64%
▲ Edge: +8.90% (CSU)
COLORADO ST 27% Book Odds: +267
UTAH STATE 76% Book Odds: -312
Book Implied: 27.20% / 75.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
59.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +4.5 (Under)
Over 59.5 37%
Under 59.5 63%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+6.0
COLORADO STATE
Book Spread
+10
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Colorado State)
Colorado StCSU (+10) 0 Utah StateUSU (-10)
Colorado State Rams (+10) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Colorado St Cover

66.6%

Utah State Cover

33.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CSU +6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSU)

CSU By 1-6 points

13.5%

CSU By 7-13 points

10.4%

USU By 1-6 points

16.7%

USU By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
24.5
COLORADO STATE
Book Implied: 24.80
30.5
UTAH STATE
Book Implied: 34.80
Simulated Score
26
COLORADO STATE
Book Implied: 24.80
28
UTAH STATE
Book Implied: 34.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Utah State Win
64% Win Prob
B
Sim Utah State Win
57% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Colorado St (+10) Loss
Proj Spread: +6.0
C
Sim Colorado St (+10) Loss
Proj Spread: +2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u59.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
B
Sim u59.5 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 31, 2026 CSU @ USU 14 - 31
Nov 29, 2024 USU @ CSU 37 - 42
Oct 7, 2023 CSU @ USU 24 - 44
Oct 15, 2022 USU @ CSU 17 - 13
Oct 22, 2021 CSU @ USU 24 - 26
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +39.0% more
Colorado State: 173.9 vs Utah State: 106.1
Total Yards (L5) +36.1% more
Colorado State: 464.5 vs Utah State: 296.9
First Downs (L5) +23.0% more
Colorado State: 21.4 vs Utah State: 16.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +21.0% more
Colorado State: 0.5 vs Utah State: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CSU Score 24.5 14
USU Score 30.5 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.5 / 21.4 25.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 106.1 / 173.9 247.0 / 77.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.64 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.6 / 0.4
Total Yards 296.9 / 464.5 464.0 / 263.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.1 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +130 / -155 → +267 / -312 ↑
8%TICKETS92%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +3.5 / -3.5 → +10 / -10 ↑
63%TICKETS37%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: 64.5 → 59.5 ↓
27%TICKETS73%
36%MONEY64%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CSU
3-7-0 (30.0%)
Margin: -14.7 ATS +/-: -8.0
USU Advantage
4-6-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CSU
3-6-1 (33.3%)
Margin: -14.7 ATS +/-: -8.0
USU Advantage
6-4-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
CSU
9-1-0
O: 90.0% / U: 10.0% Total +/-: +20.7
USU
1-9-0
O: 10.0% / U: 90.0% Total +/-: -14.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USU
CSU
USU
CSU
ML
60% 6-4
89% 8-1
70% 7-3
90% 9-1
ATS
60% 6-4
56% 5-4
50% 5-5
50% 5-5
TTL
30% 3-7
11% 1-8
30% 3-7
40% 4-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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