Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Louisiana Tech @ South Alabama LT @ USA

LOUISIANA TECH

LOUISIANA TECHLT

6-2  |  Road

35
FINAL
Sat, Oct 31 • 3:00 PM ET
Hancock Whitney Stadium
View Odds Details →

SOUTH ALABAMA

SOUTH ALABAMAUSA

4-4  |  Home

20
Key Game
Lexington Matthews
KEY GAME

Lexington Matthews

#29 | Punter
@
Aleksi Pulkkinen
KEY GAME

Aleksi Pulkkinen

#40 | Punter
Player
Lexington Matthews None-None
Aleksi Pulkkinen None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LOUISIANA TECH
60%
📊
SOUTH ALABAMA
40%
▲ Edge: +6.70% (USA)
LOUISIANA TECH 69% Book Odds: -224
SOUTH ALABAMA 34% Book Odds: +197
Book Implied: 69.10% / 33.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.4
Projected
Book Total
58.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 (Over)
Over 58.0 51%
Under 58.0 49%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
SOUTH ALABAMA
Book Spread
+6
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (South Alabama)
Louisiana TechLT (-6) 0 South AlabamaUSA (+6)
South Alabama Jaguars (+6) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Louisiana Tech Cover

38.8%

South Alabama Cover

61.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around USA +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USA)

LT By 1-6 points

17.0%

LT By 7-13 points

18.0%

USA By 1-6 points

14.7%

USA By 7-13 points

12.1%

AI Model Projected Score
31.2
LOUISIANA TECH
Book Implied: 32
27.2
SOUTH ALABAMA
Book Implied: 26
Simulated Score
28
LOUISIANA TECH
Book Implied: 32
27
SOUTH ALABAMA
Book Implied: 26
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Louisiana Tech Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Louisiana Tech Win
55% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI South Alabama (+6) Loss
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim South Alabama (+6) Loss
Proj Spread: +1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o58.0 Loss
Proj Total: 58.4
D
Sim u58.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 31, 2026 LT @ USA 35 - 20
Sep 24, 2022 LT @ USA 14 - 38
Sep 1, 2018 LT @ USA 30 - 26
Sep 30, 2017 USA @ LT 16 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +17.0% more
Louisiana Tech: 0.5 vs South Alabama: 0.3
Turnovers (L5) +10.0% more
Louisiana Tech: 0.9 vs South Alabama: 0.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +37.8% more
South Alabama: 215.6 vs Louisiana Tech: 156.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LT Score 31.2 35
USA Score 27.2 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.4 / 22.0 24.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 215.6 / 156.5 205.0 / 121.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.2
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 396.1 / 411.4 397.0 / 315.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 0.9 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -170 / +142 → -224 / +197 ↓
89%TICKETS11%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -3.5 / +3.5 → -6 / +6 ↓
40%TICKETS60%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: 56.5 → 58 ↑
23%TICKETS77%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LT Advantage
8-2-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 15.0 ATS +/-: +9.8
USA
5-5-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: +2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LT Advantage
9-1-0 (90.0%)
Margin: 15.0 ATS +/-: +9.8
USA
6-4-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: +2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
LT
7-3-0
O: 70.0% / U: 30.0% Total +/-: +6.3
USA
5-5-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +6.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USA
LT
USA
LT
ML
70% 7-3
100% 10-0
90% 9-1
60% 6-4
ATS
50% 5-5
30% 3-7
60% 6-4
60% 6-4
TTL
70% 7-3
60% 6-4
50% 5-5
50% 5-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Illinois Topples Nebraska 24-13: Key Moments and Standout Perfor…
journalstar 15 hours, 26 minutes ago
Memphis Survives South Florida Scare: Stokes' 5 TDs Seal 52-41 W…
thetelegraph 2 days, 3 hours ago
Duke's Nate Sheppard Faces Ultimate Test Against Miami's Elite R…
yahoo 2 days, 21 hours ago
Jaguars All-In, CFP Expansion, Boone's Passing Headline Busy Spo…
hjnews 4 days, 15 hours ago
Kordell Stewart Sets Sights on Colorado Coaching Role Alongside …
yahoo 4 days, 21 hours ago