Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Marshall @ Old Dominion MRSH @ ODU

MARSHALL

MARSHALLMRSH

5-3  |  Road

36
FINAL
Sat, Oct 31 • 1:00 PM ET
S.B. Ballard Stadium
View Odds Details →

OLD DOMINION

OLD DOMINIONODU

2-7  |  Home

23
Key Game
Cooper Heimbach
KEY GAME

Cooper Heimbach

#91 | Punter
@
Ian Brandt
KEY GAME

Ian Brandt

#96 | Punter
Player
Cooper Heimbach None-None
Ian Brandt None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MARSHALL
43%
📊
OLD DOMINION
57%
▲ Edge: +11.60% (ODU)
MARSHALL 59% Book Odds: -142
OLD DOMINION 46% Book Odds: +120
Book Implied: 58.70% / 45.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
45.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +6.5 (Over)
Over 45.5 62%
Under 45.5 38%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
OLD DOMINION
Book Spread
+3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Old Dominion)
MarshallMRSH (-3) 0 Old DominionODU (+3)
Old Dominion Monarchs (+3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marshall Cover

41.5%

Old Dominion Cover

58.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ODU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ODU)

MRSH By 1-6 points

15.3%

MRSH By 7-13 points

12.9%

ODU By 1-6 points

17.0%

ODU By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
24.5
MARSHALL
Book Implied: 24.20
27.5
OLD DOMINION
Book Implied: 21.20
Simulated Score
32
MARSHALL
Book Implied: 24.20
27
OLD DOMINION
Book Implied: 21.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Old Dominion Loss
57% Win Prob
C
Sim Marshall Win
69% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Old Dominion (+3) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Sim Marshall (-3) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o45.5 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
B
Sim o45.5 Win
Proj Total: 59.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 31, 2026 MRSH @ ODU 36 - 23
Oct 11, 2025 ODU @ MRSH 24 - 48
Nov 23, 2024 MRSH @ ODU 42 - 35
Sep 30, 2023 ODU @ MRSH 35 - 41
Nov 5, 2022 MRSH @ ODU 12 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +57.0% more
Marshall: 167.9 vs Old Dominion: 72.3
Total Yards (L5) +45.8% more
Marshall: 416.6 vs Old Dominion: 225.6
First Downs (L5) +35.4% more
Marshall: 22.4 vs Old Dominion: 14.5
Turnovers (L5) +17.3% more
Marshall: 2.1 vs Old Dominion: 1.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MRSH Score 24.5 36
ODU Score 27.5 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 14.5 / 22.4 20.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 72.3 / 167.9 80.0 / 196.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.38 / 0.14
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.41 / 0.59
Total Yards 225.6 / 416.6 409.0 / 338.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 2.1 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -130 / +110 → -142 / +120 ↓
83%TICKETS17%
83%MONEY17%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -2.5 / +2.5 → -3 / +3 ↓
65%TICKETS35%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: 46.5 → 45.5 ↓
64%TICKETS36%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MRSH Advantage
5-5-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -9.0 ATS +/-: -9.2
ODU
3-7-0 (30.0%)
Margin: -9.0 ATS +/-: -7.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MRSH Advantage
3-7-0 (30.0%)
Margin: -9.0 ATS +/-: -9.2
ODU
2-8-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -9.0 ATS +/-: -7.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MRSH
5-5-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -2.8
ODU
4-6-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -4.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ODU
MRSH
ODU
MRSH
ML
50% 5-5
50% 5-5
40% 4-6
80% 8-2
ATS
30% 3-7
30% 3-7
50% 5-5
40% 4-6
TTL
30% 3-7
60% 6-4
50% 5-5
70% 7-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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