Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Southern Miss @ UL Monroe USM @ ULM

SOUTHERN MISS

SOUTHERN MISSUSM

3-5  |  Road

35
FINAL
Sat, Oct 31 • 3:30 PM ET
Malone Stadium
View Odds Details →

UL MONROE

UL MONROEULM

1-7  |  Home

21
Key Game
Tyler Lassiter
KEY GAME

Tyler Lassiter

#2 | Linebacker
@
Makenzie Ryan
KEY GAME

Makenzie Ryan

#47 | Punter
Player
Tyler Lassiter None-None
Makenzie Ryan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SOUTHERN MISS
60%
📊
UL MONROE
40%
SOUTHERN MISS 63% Book Odds: -167
UL MONROE 40% Book Odds: +150
Book Implied: 62.50% / 40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
57.0
Projected
Book Total
54.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 (Over)
Over 54.5 55%
Under 54.5 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.6
SOUTHERN MISS
Book Spread
-3.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Southern Miss)
Southern MissUSM (-3.5) 0 UL MonroeULM (+3.5)
Southern Miss Golden Eagles (-3.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Southern Miss Cover

62.9%

UL Monroe Cover

37.1%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around USM -4.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USM)

USM By 1-6 points

16.9%

USM By 7-13 points

18.4%

ULM By 1-6 points

14.4%

ULM By 7-13 points

11.6%

AI Model Projected Score
30.8
SOUTHERN MISS
Book Implied: 29
26.2
UL MONROE
Book Implied: 25.50
Simulated Score
31
SOUTHERN MISS
Book Implied: 29
30
UL MONROE
Book Implied: 25.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Southern Miss Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Southern Miss Win
55% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Southern Miss (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.6
D
Sim UL Monroe (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o54.5 Win
Proj Total: 57.0
C
Sim o54.5 Win
Proj Total: 61.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 31, 2026 USM @ ULM 35 - 21
Oct 25, 2025 ULM @ USM 21 - 49
Oct 12, 2024 USM @ ULM 21 - 38
Nov 4, 2023 ULM @ USM 7 - 24
Nov 26, 2022 USM @ ULM 20 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +42.0% more
Southern Miss: 169.0 vs UL Monroe: 97.9
Total Yards (L5) +24.7% more
Southern Miss: 404.3 vs UL Monroe: 304.4
First Downs (L5) +21.4% more
Southern Miss: 21.5 vs UL Monroe: 16.9
Turnovers (L5) +9.1% more
Southern Miss: 1.5 vs UL Monroe: 1.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USM Score 30.8 35
ULM Score 26.2 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.9 / 21.5 23.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 97.9 / 169.0 157.0 / 249.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.44 / 0.28
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 304.4 / 404.3 359.0 / 379.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.5 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -152 / +131 → -167 / +150 ↓
91%TICKETS9%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -3 / +3 → -3.5 / +3.5 ↓
57%TICKETS43%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: 53.5 → 54.5 ↑
34%TICKETS66%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USM Advantage
3-7-0 (30.0%)
Margin: -9.6 ATS +/-: -0.8
ULM
2-8-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -15.3 ATS +/-: -4.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USM Advantage
4-6-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -9.6 ATS +/-: -0.8
ULM
3-7-0 (30.0%)
Margin: -15.3 ATS +/-: -4.5
⚖️ Over/Under
USM
7-3-0
O: 70.0% / U: 30.0% Total +/-: +8.3
ULM
6-4-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ULM
USM
ULM
USM
ML
70% 7-3
70% 7-3
50% 5-5
50% 5-5
ATS
30% 3-7
50% 5-5
30% 3-7
50% 5-5
TTL
70% 7-3
60% 6-4
70% 7-3
50% 5-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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