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COASTAL CAROLINA

COASTALCCU

3-5  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sat, Oct 31 • 2:00 PM ET
Center Parc Stadium
View Odds Details →

GEORGIA STATE

GEORGIA STGAST

4-4  |  Home

20
Key Game
Roland Podesta
KEY GAME

Roland Podesta

#42 | Punter
@
Samer Layous
KEY GAME

Samer Layous

#39 | Place kicker
Player
Roland Podesta None-None
Samer Layous None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COASTAL
37%
📊
GEORGIA ST
63%
▲ Edge: +1.10% (GAST)
COASTAL 40% Book Odds: +149
GEORGIA ST 62% Book Odds: -166
Book Implied: 40.20% / 62.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.0
Projected
Book Total
56.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +2.0 (Under)
Over 56.0 47%
Under 56.0 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
GEORGIA STATE
Book Spread
-4
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Georgia State)
CoastalCCU (+4) 0 Georgia StGAST (-4)
Georgia State Panthers (-4) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Coastal Cover

33.4%

Georgia St Cover

66.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around GAST -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GAST)

CCU By 1-6 points

13.5%

CCU By 7-13 points

10.4%

GAST By 1-6 points

16.7%

GAST By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
24
COASTAL CAROLINA
Book Implied: 26
30
GEORGIA STATE
Book Implied: 30
Simulated Score
16
COASTAL CAROLINA
Book Implied: 26
33
GEORGIA STATE
Book Implied: 30
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Georgia St Loss
63% Win Prob
B
Sim Georgia St Loss
95% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Georgia St (-4) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
C
Sim Georgia St (-4) Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u56.0 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
D
Sim u56.0 Win
Proj Total: 49.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 31, 2026 CCU @ GAST 31 - 20
Nov 8, 2025 GAST @ CCU 27 - 40
Nov 30, 2024 CCU @ GAST 48 - 27
Sep 21, 2023 GAST @ CCU 30 - 17
Sep 22, 2022 CCU @ GAST 41 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +36.6% more
Georgia State: 1.8 vs Coastal Carolina: 1.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +23.2% more
Georgia State: 190.8 vs Coastal Carolina: 154.9
Total Yards (L5) +12.8% more
Georgia State: 421.7 vs Coastal Carolina: 374.0
First Downs (L5) +10.5% more
Georgia State: 21.3 vs Coastal Carolina: 19.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CCU Score 24.0 31
GAST Score 30.0 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.3 / 19.3 19.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 190.8 / 154.9 160.0 / 73.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 421.7 / 374.0 360.0 / 375.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 1.3 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +180 / -218 → +149 / -166 ↓
8%TICKETS92%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +6.5 / -6.5 → +4 / -4 ↓
48%TICKETS52%
67%MONEY33%
Total (O/U)
Open: 57.5 → 56 ↓
30%TICKETS70%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CCU
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: +2.2
GAST Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +5.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CCU
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: +2.2
GAST Advantage
5-3-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +5.8
⚖️ Over/Under
CCU
4-4-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.9
GAST
5-3-0
O: 62.5% / U: 37.5% Total +/-: +5.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GAST
CCU
GAST
CCU
ML
62% 5-3
38% 3-5
62% 5-3
62% 5-3
ATS
25% 2-6
25% 2-6
75% 6-2
50% 4-4
TTL
38% 3-5
57% 4-3-1
50% 4-4
71% 5-2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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