Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / New Mexico @ San José St UNM @ SJSU

NEW MEXICO

NEW MEXICOUNM

7-1  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, Oct 31 • 4:00 PM ET
CEFCU Stadium
View Odds Details →

SAN JOSÉ STATE

SAN JOSÉ STSJSU

4-5  |  Home

16
Key Game
Michael Kern
KEY GAME

Michael Kern

#19 | Punter
@
Trent Carrizosa
KEY GAME

Trent Carrizosa

#49 | Punter
Player
Michael Kern None-None
Trent Carrizosa None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NEW MEXICO
79%
📊
SAN JOSÉ ST
21%
▲ Edge: +4.90% (SJSU)
NEW MEXICO 88% Book Odds: -750
SAN JOSÉ ST 16% Book Odds: +525
Book Implied: 88.20% / 16%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.4
Projected
Book Total
42.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +5.9 (Over)
Over 42.5 64%
Under 42.5 36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+14.0
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Book Spread
+15.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (San José State)
New MexicoUNM (-15.5) 0 San José StSJSU (+15.5)
San José State Spartans (+15.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

New Mexico Cover

15.9%

San José St Cover

84.1%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around SJSU +14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SJSU)

UNM By 1-6 points

12.9%

UNM By 7-13 points

19.0%

SJSU By 1-6 points

7.9%

SJSU By 7-13 points

4.7%

AI Model Projected Score
31.2
NEW MEXICO
Book Implied: 29
17.2
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Book Implied: 13.50
Simulated Score
33
NEW MEXICO
Book Implied: 29
25
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Book Implied: 13.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI New Mexico Win
79% Win Prob
A
Sim New Mexico Win
79% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI San José St (+15.5) Win
Proj Spread: +14.0
D
Sim San José St (+15.5) Win
Proj Spread: +8.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o42.5 Loss
Proj Total: 48.4
B
Sim o42.5 Loss
Proj Total: 58.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 31, 2026 UNM @ SJSU 21 - 16
Oct 3, 2025 UNM @ SJSU 28 - 35
Oct 14, 2023 SJSU @ UNM 52 - 24
Oct 31, 2020 UNM @ SJSU 21 - 38
Oct 4, 2019 UNM @ SJSU 21 - 32
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +41.8% more
New Mexico: 1.2 vs San José State: 0.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +41.8% more
New Mexico: 207.2 vs San José State: 120.7
First Downs (L5) +15.0% more
New Mexico: 17.6 vs San José State: 15.0
Time of Possession (L5) +12.0% more
New Mexico: 0.5 vs San José State: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNM Score 31.2 21
SJSU Score 17.2 16
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.0 / 17.6 15.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 120.7 / 207.2 48.0 / 231.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.38 / 0.3
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 318.7 / 343.3 238.0 / 342.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.2 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -625 / +455 → -750 / +525 ↓
98%TICKETS2%
45%MONEY55%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -14.5 / +14.5 → -15.5 / +15.5 ↓
47%TICKETS53%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: 42.5 → 42.5
67%TICKETS33%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNM Advantage
8-2-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 20.9 ATS +/-: +7.7
SJSU
5-6-0 (45.5%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: +0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNM Advantage
7-3-0 (70.0%)
Margin: 20.9 ATS +/-: +7.7
SJSU
5-6-0 (45.5%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: +0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
UNM
3-7-0
O: 30.0% / U: 70.0% Total +/-: -1.1
SJSU
1-10-0
O: 9.1% / U: 90.9% Total +/-: -9.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SJSU
UNM
SJSU
UNM
ML
73% 8-3
89% 8-1
64% 7-4
70% 7-3
ATS
18% 2-9
67% 6-3
45% 5-6
50% 5-5
TTL
27% 3-8
22% 2-7
36% 4-7
30% 3-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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