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UAB

UABUAB

4-4  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Oct 31 • 12:00 PM ET
Raymond James Stadium
View Odds Details →

SOUTH FLORIDA

SOUTH FLORIDAUSF

6-2  |  Home

30
Key Game
Oliver Straw
KEY GAME

Oliver Straw

#46 | Punter
@
Luke Goater
KEY GAME

Luke Goater

#39 | Punter
Player
Oliver Straw None-None
Luke Goater None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UAB
23%
📊
SOUTH FLORIDA
77%
▲ Edge: +2.60% (USF)
UAB 29% Book Odds: +246
SOUTH FLORIDA 74% Book Odds: -284
Book Implied: 28.90% / 74%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
42.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +8.5 (Over)
Over 42.5 70%
Under 42.5 31%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.6
SOUTH FLORIDA
Book Spread
-7.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.1 points (South Florida)
UABUAB (+7.5) 0 South FloridaUSF (-7.5)
South Florida Bulls (-7.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UAB Cover

18.4%

South Florida Cover

81.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around USF -12.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USF)

UAB By 1-6 points

8.8%

UAB By 7-13 points

5.5%

USF By 1-6 points

13.8%

USF By 7-13 points

19.4%

AI Model Projected Score
19.2
UAB
Book Implied: 17.50
31.8
SOUTH FLORIDA
Book Implied: 25
Simulated Score
18
UAB
Book Implied: 17.50
33
SOUTH FLORIDA
Book Implied: 25
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI South Florida Win
77% Win Prob
A
Sim South Florida Win
93% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI South Florida (-7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -12.6
B
Sim South Florida (-7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o42.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
A
Sim o42.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 31, 2026 UAB @ USF 10 - 30
Nov 22, 2025 USF @ UAB 48 - 18
Oct 19, 2024 UAB @ USF 25 - 35
Oct 7, 2023 USF @ UAB 35 - 56
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +60.3% more
UAB: 1.4 vs South Florida: 0.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +20.4% more
UAB: 153.2 vs South Florida: 121.9
Total Yards (L5) +8.9% more
UAB: 343.5 vs South Florida: 312.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UAB Score 19.2 10
USF Score 31.8 30
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.6 / 19.4 13.0 / 10.0
Rushing Yards 121.9 / 153.2 191.0 / 17.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.4 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 312.8 / 343.5 237.0 / 177.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 1.4 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +270 / -340 → +246 / -284 ↓
7%TICKETS93%
52%MONEY48%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +9.5 / -9.5 → +7.5 / -7.5 ↓
43%TICKETS57%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: 46.5 → 42.5 ↓
77%TICKETS23%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UAB
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
USF Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.5 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UAB
3-4-1 (42.9%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
USF Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 12.5 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UAB
1-7-0
O: 12.5% / U: 87.5% Total +/-: -5.3
USF
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -8.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USF
UAB
USF
UAB
ML
75% 6-2
75% 6-2
75% 6-2
100% 8-0
ATS
50% 4-4
57% 4-3-1
38% 3-5
86% 6-1-1
TTL
25% 2-6
38% 3-5
25% 2-6
50% 4-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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