Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Temple @ East Carolina TEM @ ECU

TEMPLE

TEMPLETEM

2-6  |  Road

9
FINAL
Sat, Oct 31 • 3:00 PM ET
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
View Odds Details →

EAST CAROLINA

EAST CAROLINAECU

4-4  |  Home

17
Key Game
Dante Atton
KEY GAME

Dante Atton

#7 | Punter
@
Tomas O'Halloran
KEY GAME

Tomas O'Halloran

#48 | Punter
Player
Dante Atton None-None
Tomas O'Halloran None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEMPLE
25%
📊
EAST CAROLINA
75%
▲ Edge: +10.90% (ECU)
TEMPLE 38% Book Odds: +162
EAST CAROLINA 64% Book Odds: -181
Book Implied: 38.20% / 64.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.5
Projected
Book Total
51.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 51.5 51%
Under 51.5 49%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.5
EAST CAROLINA
Book Spread
-4
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.5 points (East Carolina)
TempleTEM (+4) 0 East CarolinaECU (-4)
East Carolina Pirates (-4) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Temple Cover

20.6%

East Carolina Cover

79.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ECU -11.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ECU)

TEM By 1-6 points

9.6%

TEM By 7-13 points

6.2%

ECU By 1-6 points

14.4%

ECU By 7-13 points

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
20.5
TEMPLE
Book Implied: 23.80
32
EAST CAROLINA
Book Implied: 27.80
Simulated Score
21
TEMPLE
Book Implied: 23.80
25
EAST CAROLINA
Book Implied: 27.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI East Carolina Win
75% Win Prob
A
Sim East Carolina Win
65% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI East Carolina (-4) Win
Proj Spread: -11.5
A
Sim Temple (+4) Loss
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o51.5 Loss
Proj Total: 52.5
D
Sim u51.5 Win
Proj Total: 46.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 31, 2026 TEM @ ECU 9 - 17
Nov 1, 2025 ECU @ TEM 45 - 14
Oct 26, 2024 TEM @ ECU 34 - 56
Nov 26, 2022 ECU @ TEM 49 - 46
Nov 6, 2021 TEM @ ECU 3 - 45
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +133.0% more
East Carolina: 2.1 vs Temple: 0.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
Temple: 0.4 vs East Carolina: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEM Score 20.5 9
ECU Score 32.0 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.1 / 18.8 22.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 174.5 / 188.5 222.0 / 121.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.14
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 379.1 / 403.1 352.0 / 249.0
Turnovers 2.1 / 0.8 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +145 / -175 → +162 / -181 ↑
6%TICKETS94%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +4.5 / -4.5 → +4 / -4 ↓
40%TICKETS60%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: 49.5 → 51.5 ↑
44%TICKETS56%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEM
2-8-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -4.4
ECU Advantage
6-4-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-: -3.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEM Advantage
5-4-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -5.7 ATS +/-: -4.4
ECU
5-5-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-: -3.4
⚖️ Over/Under
TEM
4-6-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: +1.8
ECU
2-8-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -4.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ECU
TEM
ECU
TEM
ML
60% 6-4
80% 8-2
70% 7-3
70% 7-3
ATS
40% 4-6
56% 5-4-1
30% 3-7
33% 3-6-1
TTL
30% 3-7
40% 4-6
80% 8-2
30% 3-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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