Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Army @ Memphis ARMY @ MEM

ARMY

ARMYARMY

5-3  |  Road

22
FINAL
Sat, Oct 31 • 8:00 PM ET
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
View Odds Details →

MEMPHIS

MEMPHISMEM

7-2  |  Home

49
Key Game
Dawson Jones
KEY GAME

Dawson Jones

#95 | Place kicker
@
Philippe Laforge
KEY GAME

Philippe Laforge

#80 | Place kicker
Player
Dawson Jones None-None
Philippe Laforge None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ARMY
48%
📊
MEMPHIS
52%
▲ Edge: +12.30% (ARMY)
ARMY 36% Book Odds: +180
MEMPHIS 69% Book Odds: -218
Book Implied: 35.70% / 68.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.4
Projected
Book Total
59.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +6.1 (Under)
Over 59.5 36%
Under 59.5 64%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
ARMY
Book Spread
+6
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Army)
ArmyARMY (+6) 0 MemphisMEM (-6)
Army Black Knights (+6) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Army Cover

52.8%

Memphis Cover

47.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ARMY +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARMY)

ARMY By 1-6 points

16.1%

ARMY By 7-13 points

14.6%

MEM By 1-6 points

16.7%

MEM By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
26.2
ARMY
Book Implied: 26.80
27.2
MEMPHIS
Book Implied: 32.80
Simulated Score
24
ARMY
Book Implied: 26.80
35
MEMPHIS
Book Implied: 32.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Memphis Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Memphis Win
86% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Army (+6) Loss
Proj Spread: +1.0
B
Sim Memphis (-6) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u59.5 Loss
Proj Total: 53.4
B
Sim u59.5 Loss
Proj Total: 59.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 31, 2026 ARMY @ MEM 22 - 49
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +171.0% more
Memphis: 1.9 vs Army: 0.2
First Downs (L5) +28.9% more
Memphis: 25.6 vs Army: 19.8
Total Yards (L5) +22.0% more
Memphis: 491.3 vs Army: 402.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +39.4% more
Army: 333.1 vs Memphis: 201.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARMY Score 26.2 22
MEM Score 27.2 49
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 25.6 / 19.8 27.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 201.8 / 333.1 183.0 / 320.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.73 / 0.3
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 491.3 / 402.8 554.0 / 365.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 0.2 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +207 / -249 → +180 / -218 ↓
10%TICKETS90%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +6.5 / -6.5 → +6 / -6 ↓
51%TICKETS49%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: 57 → 59.5 ↑
35%TICKETS65%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARMY
5-4-0 (55.6%)
Margin: 6.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
MEM Advantage
8-2-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 13.7 ATS +/-: +4.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARMY
3-5-1 (37.5%)
Margin: 6.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
MEM Advantage
6-4-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.7 ATS +/-: +4.6
⚖️ Over/Under
ARMY
7-2-0
O: 77.8% / U: 22.2% Total +/-: +7.2
MEM
7-3-0
O: 70.0% / U: 30.0% Total +/-: +9.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
ARMY
MEM
ARMY
ML
80% 8-2
78% 7-2
80% 8-2
78% 7-2
ATS
60% 6-4
67% 6-3
50% 5-5
67% 6-3
TTL
40% 4-6
33% 3-6
40% 4-6
33% 3-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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