Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Oregon St @ Fresno St ORST @ FRES

OREGON STATE

OREGON STORST

5-3  |  Road

22
FINAL
Sat, Oct 31 • 11:00 PM ET
Valley Children's Stadium
View Odds Details →

FRESNO STATE

FRESNO STFRES

5-3  |  Home

38
Key Game
Caleb Ojeda
KEY GAME

Caleb Ojeda

#28 | Place kicker
@
Jordan Malau'ulu
KEY GAME

Jordan Malau'ulu

#10 | Wide Receiver
Player
Caleb Ojeda None-None
Jordan Malau'ulu None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OREGON ST
64%
📊
FRESNO ST
36%
▲ Edge: +2.10% (FRES)
OREGON ST 69% Book Odds: -218
FRESNO ST 34% Book Odds: +193
Book Implied: 68.60% / 34.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.0
Projected
Book Total
57.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +4.0 (Under)
Over 57.0 41%
Under 57.0 59%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+6.0
FRESNO STATE
Book Spread
+6
Book Line
Oregon StORST (-6) 0 Fresno StFRES (+6)
Line aligns with book spread (+6)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Oregon St Cover

33.4%

Fresno St Cover

66.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around FRES +6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FRES)

ORST By 1-6 points

16.7%

ORST By 7-13 points

19.0%

FRES By 1-6 points

13.5%

FRES By 7-13 points

10.4%

AI Model Projected Score
29.5
OREGON STATE
Book Implied: 31.50
23.5
FRESNO STATE
Book Implied: 25.50
Simulated Score
30
OREGON STATE
Book Implied: 31.50
31
FRESNO STATE
Book Implied: 25.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Oregon St Loss
64% Win Prob
B
Sim Fresno St Win
53% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Fresno St (-6) Loss
Proj Spread: +6.0
D
Sim Fresno St (+6) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI u57.0 Loss
Proj Total: 53.0
B
Sim o57.0 Win
Proj Total: 61.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 31, 2026 ORST @ FRES 22 - 38
Sep 6, 2025 FRES @ ORST 36 - 27
Sep 10, 2022 ORST @ FRES 35 - 32
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +38.6% more
Oregon State: 555.9 vs Fresno State: 341.6
First Downs (L5) +32.9% more
Oregon State: 27.7 vs Fresno State: 18.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +23.9% more
Oregon State: 178.8 vs Fresno State: 136.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +15.0% more
Oregon State: 0.5 vs Fresno State: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ORST Score 29.5 22
FRES Score 23.5 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.6 / 27.7 15.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards 136.0 / 178.8 190.0 / 77.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.35
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 341.6 / 555.9 392.0 / 450.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 0.5 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -258 / +210 → -218 / +193 ↑
97%TICKETS3%
99%MONEY1%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -7 / +7 → -6 / +6 ↑
77%TICKETS23%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: 56.5 → 57 ↑
41%TICKETS59%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORST
5-5-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 9.5 ATS +/-: +8.1
FRES
5-5-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: +6.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORST
7-3-0 (70.0%)
Margin: 9.5 ATS +/-: +8.1
FRES
7-3-0 (70.0%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: +6.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ORST
8-2-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +9.3
FRES
6-4-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FRES
ORST
FRES
ORST
ML
60% 6-4
67% 6-3
80% 8-2
70% 7-3
ATS
40% 4-6
56% 5-4
50% 5-5
60% 6-4
TTL
40% 4-6
44% 4-5
60% 6-4
40% 4-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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