Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Michigan @ Rutgers MICH @ RUTG

MICHIGAN

MICHIGANMICH

5-3  |  Road

28
FINAL
Sat, Oct 31 • 12:30 PM ET
SHI Stadium
View Odds Details →

RUTGERS

RUTGERSRUTG

2-6  |  Home

21
Key Game
Cam Brown
KEY GAME

Cam Brown

#33 | Punter
@
Jakob Anderson
KEY GAME

Jakob Anderson

#94 | Punter
Player
Cam Brown None-None
Jakob Anderson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MICHIGAN
71%
📊
RUTGERS
29%
▲ Edge: +13.20% (RUTG)
MICHIGAN 88% Book Odds: -718
RUTGERS 15% Book Odds: +548
Book Implied: 87.80% / 15.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.5
Projected
Book Total
46.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 (Over)
Over 46.5 60%
Under 46.5 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+9.5
RUTGERS
Book Spread
+16.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Rutgers)
MichiganMICH (-16.5) 0 RutgersRUTG (+16.5)
Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+16.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Michigan Cover

24.9%

Rutgers Cover

75.1%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around RUTG +9.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (RUTG)

MICH By 1-6 points

15.5%

MICH By 7-13 points

19.7%

RUTG By 1-6 points

11.1%

RUTG By 7-13 points

7.6%

AI Model Projected Score
30
MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 31.50
20.5
RUTGERS
Book Implied: 15
Simulated Score
23
MICHIGAN
Book Implied: 31.50
34
RUTGERS
Book Implied: 15
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Michigan Win
71% Win Prob
A
Sim Rutgers Loss
86% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Rutgers (+16.5) Win
Proj Spread: +9.5
A
Sim Rutgers (+16.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o46.5 Win
Proj Total: 50.5
B
Sim o46.5 Win
Proj Total: 57.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 31, 2026 MICH @ RUTG 28 - 21
Sep 23, 2023 RUTG @ MICH 7 - 31
Nov 5, 2022 MICH @ RUTG 52 - 17
Sep 25, 2021 RUTG @ MICH 13 - 20
Nov 21, 2020 MICH @ RUTG 48 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +14.1% more
Michigan: 2.0 vs Rutgers: 1.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +42.3% more
Rutgers: 177.5 vs Michigan: 124.8
Total Yards (L5) +38.1% more
Rutgers: 383.8 vs Michigan: 278.0
First Downs (L5) +28.9% more
Rutgers: 20.8 vs Michigan: 16.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MICH Score 30.0 28
RUTG Score 20.5 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.8 / 16.2 9.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 177.5 / 124.8 126.0 / 161.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.3 / 0.75
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.35 / 0.65
Total Yards 383.8 / 278.0 249.0 / 427.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 2.0 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -625 / +455 → -718 / +548 ↓
97%TICKETS3%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -14 / +14 → -16.5 / +16.5 ↓
47%TICKETS53%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: 47.5 → 46.5 ↓
60%TICKETS40%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MICH Advantage
5-5-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: -8.2
RUTG
2-8-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -9.1 ATS +/-: -4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MICH
3-7-0 (30.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: -8.2
RUTG Advantage
4-6-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -9.1 ATS +/-: -4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MICH
2-8-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.7
RUTG
6-4-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RUTG
MICH
RUTG
MICH
ML
70% 7-3
70% 7-3
60% 6-4
60% 6-4
ATS
30% 3-7
60% 6-4
50% 5-5
90% 9-1
TTL
50% 5-5
20% 2-8
50% 5-5
40% 4-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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