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PURDUE

PURDUEPUR

3-5  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Oct 31 • 4:15 PM ET
Beaver Stadium
View Odds Details →

PENN STATE

PENN STATEPSU

4-4  |  Home

31
Key Game
Dylan Drennan
KEY GAME

Dylan Drennan

#42 | Punter
@
Ryan Barker
KEY GAME

Ryan Barker

#94 | Place kicker
Player
Dylan Drennan None-None
Ryan Barker None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PURDUE
28%
📊
PENN STATE
72%
▲ Edge: +2.50% (PUR)
PURDUE 25% Book Odds: +295
PENN STATE 79% Book Odds: -375
Book Implied: 25.30% / 78.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
55.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 55.5 48%
Under 55.5 52%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+10.0
PURDUE
Book Spread
+10
Book Line
PurduePUR (+10) 0 Penn StatePSU (-10)
Line aligns with book spread (+10)
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Purdue Cover

76.2%

Penn State Cover

23.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around PUR +10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PUR)

PUR By 1-6 points

10.7%

PUR By 7-13 points

7.3%

PSU By 1-6 points

15.3%

PSU By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
22.5
PURDUE
Book Implied: 22.80
32.5
PENN STATE
Book Implied: 32.80
Simulated Score
23
PURDUE
Book Implied: 22.80
31
PENN STATE
Book Implied: 32.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Penn State Win
72% Win Prob
A
Sim Penn State Win
79% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Purdue (-10) Win
Proj Spread: +10.0
D
Sim Purdue (+10) Loss
Proj Spread: +8.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u55.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
D
Sim u55.5 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 31, 2026 PUR @ PSU 17 - 31
Nov 16, 2024 PSU @ PUR 49 - 10
Sep 1, 2022 PSU @ PUR 35 - 31
Oct 5, 2019 PUR @ PSU 7 - 35
Oct 29, 2016 PSU @ PUR 62 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +56.2% more
Penn State: 1.6 vs Purdue: 1.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +28.9% more
Purdue: 138.2 vs Penn State: 98.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Purdue: 0.4 vs Penn State: 0.3
Total Yards (L5) +8.7% more
Purdue: 383.2 vs Penn State: 349.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PUR Score 22.5 17
PSU Score 32.5 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.0 / 21.3 22.0 / 9.0
Rushing Yards 98.3 / 138.2 269.0 / 33.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.38 / 0.18
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.72 / 0.28
Total Yards 349.8 / 383.2 457.0 / 175.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.1 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +245 / -305 → +295 / -375 ↑
3%TICKETS97%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +8.5 / -8.5 → +10 / -10 ↑
61%TICKETS39%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52.5 → 55.5 ↑
38%TICKETS62%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PUR
3-6-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: -0.5
PSU Advantage
5-4-0 (55.6%)
Margin: 9.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PUR
3-6-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -2.9 ATS +/-: -0.5
PSU Advantage
5-4-0 (55.6%)
Margin: 9.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
PUR
7-2-0
O: 77.8% / U: 22.2% Total +/-: +6.9
PSU
4-5-0
O: 44.4% / U: 55.6% Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PSU
PUR
PSU
PUR
ML
67% 6-3
67% 6-3
56% 5-4
78% 7-2
ATS
44% 4-5
38% 3-5-1
22% 2-7
50% 4-4-1
TTL
78% 7-2
67% 6-3
44% 4-5
56% 5-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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