Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Illinois @ Maryland ILL @ MD

ILLINOIS

ILLINOISILL

5-3  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Oct 31 • 12:00 PM ET
SECU Stadium
View Odds Details →

MARYLAND

MARYLANDMD

2-6  |  Home

17
Key Game
Lars Rau
KEY GAME

Lars Rau

#81 | Punter
@
Bryce McFerson
KEY GAME

Bryce McFerson

#34 | Punter
Player
Lars Rau None-None
Bryce McFerson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ILLINOIS
76%
📊
MARYLAND
24%
▲ Edge: +17% (ILL)
ILLINOIS 59% Book Odds: -143
MARYLAND 44% Book Odds: +129
Book Implied: 58.80% / 43.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.0
Projected
Book Total
54.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.5 (Under)
Over 54.5 49%
Under 54.5 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
ILLINOIS
Book Spread
-3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Illinois)
IllinoisILL (-3) 0 MarylandMD (+3)
Illinois Fighting Illini (-3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Illinois Cover

80.4%

Maryland Cover

19.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ILL -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILL)

ILL By 1-6 points

14.2%

ILL By 7-13 points

19.5%

MD By 1-6 points

9.3%

MD By 7-13 points

5.9%

AI Model Projected Score
33
ILLINOIS
Book Implied: 28.80
21
MARYLAND
Book Implied: 25.80
Simulated Score
30
ILLINOIS
Book Implied: 28.80
24
MARYLAND
Book Implied: 25.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Illinois Win
76% Win Prob
A
Sim Illinois Win
72% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Illinois (-3) Push
Proj Spread: -12.0
A
Sim Illinois (-3) Push
Proj Spread: -6.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u54.5 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
D
Sim u54.5 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 31, 2026 ILL @ MD 20 - 17
Nov 15, 2025 MD @ ILL 6 - 24
Oct 14, 2023 ILL @ MD 27 - 24
Sep 17, 2021 MD @ ILL 20 - 17
Oct 27, 2018 ILL @ MD 33 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +37.1% more
Illinois: 170.6 vs Maryland: 107.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +18.0% more
Illinois: 0.5 vs Maryland: 0.3
First Downs (L5) +16.3% more
Illinois: 20.9 vs Maryland: 17.5
Total Yards (L5) +12.3% more
Illinois: 371.5 vs Maryland: 326.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ILL Score 33.0 20
MD Score 21.0 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.5 / 20.9 17.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 107.3 / 170.6 98.0 / 184.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 326.0 / 371.5 288.0 / 407.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 0.9 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -142 / +120 → -143 / +129 ↓
83%TICKETS17%
78%MONEY22%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -3 / +3 → -3 / +3
66%TICKETS34%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52.5 → 54.5 ↑
51%TICKETS49%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ILL Advantage
6-3-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: +2.1
MD
3-6-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -3.7 ATS +/-: -4.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ILL Advantage
5-4-0 (55.6%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: +2.1
MD
4-5-0 (44.4%)
Margin: -3.7 ATS +/-: -4.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ILL
5-4-0
O: 55.6% / U: 44.4% Total +/-: -2.1
MD
7-2-0
O: 77.8% / U: 22.2% Total +/-: +4.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MD
ILL
MD
ILL
ML
56% 5-4
70% 7-3
56% 5-4
60% 6-4
ATS
25% 2-6-1
44% 4-5-1
25% 2-6-1
67% 6-3-1
TTL
56% 5-4
60% 6-4
56% 5-4
70% 7-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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