Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Clemson @ Florida St CLEM @ FSU

CLEMSON

CLEMSONCLEM

5-3  |  Road

36
FINAL
Sat, Oct 31 • 7:00 PM ET
Doak Campbell Stadium
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA STATE

FLORIDA STFSU

3-5  |  Home

24
Key Game
Jack Smith
KEY GAME

Jack Smith

#89 | Punter
@
Daniel Hughes
KEY GAME

Daniel Hughes

#36 | Punter
Player
Jack Smith None-None
Daniel Hughes None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CLEMSON
43%
📊
FLORIDA ST
57%
▲ Edge: +5.90% (CLEM)
CLEMSON 37% Book Odds: +170
FLORIDA ST 67% Book Odds: -205
Book Implied: 37% / 67.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
50.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 50.5 55%
Under 50.5 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
CLEMSON
Book Spread
+4.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Clemson)
ClemsonCLEM (+4.5) 0 Florida StFSU (-4.5)
Clemson Tigers (+4.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Clemson Cover

58.5%

Florida St Cover

41.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CLEM +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLEM)

CLEM By 1-6 points

15.3%

CLEM By 7-13 points

12.9%

FSU By 1-6 points

17.0%

FSU By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
24.5
CLEMSON
Book Implied: 23
27.5
FLORIDA STATE
Book Implied: 27.50
Simulated Score
21
CLEMSON
Book Implied: 23
36
FLORIDA STATE
Book Implied: 27.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Florida St Loss
57% Win Prob
C
Sim Florida St Loss
93% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Clemson (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
C
Sim Florida St (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o50.5 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Sim o50.5 Win
Proj Total: 57.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 31, 2026 CLEM @ FSU 36 - 24
Nov 8, 2025 FSU @ CLEM 10 - 24
Oct 5, 2024 CLEM @ FSU 29 - 13
Sep 23, 2023 FSU @ CLEM 31 - 24
Oct 15, 2022 CLEM @ FSU 34 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +27.0% more
Florida State: 1.6 vs Clemson: 1.2
Total Yards (L5) +20.6% more
Florida State: 419.2 vs Clemson: 347.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
Florida State: 0.4 vs Clemson: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +8.5% more
Florida State: 169.7 vs Clemson: 156.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLEM Score 24.5 36
FSU Score 27.5 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.7 / 20.5 21.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 169.7 / 156.4 65.0 / 162.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.1 / 0.24
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 419.2 / 347.5 415.0 / 351.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.2 4.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -112 / -108 → +170 / -205 ↑
18%TICKETS82%
36%MONEY64%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → +4.5 / -4.5 ↑
58%TICKETS42%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51.5 → 50.5 ↓
54%TICKETS46%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLEM Advantage
6-3-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 2.0 ATS +/-: -2.8
FSU
5-5-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLEM
4-5-0 (44.4%)
Margin: 2.0 ATS +/-: -2.8
FSU Advantage
5-4-1 (55.6%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
CLEM
4-5-0
O: 44.4% / U: 55.6% Total +/-: -6.9
FSU
5-5-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FSU
CLEM
FSU
CLEM
ML
60% 6-4
67% 6-3
70% 7-3
78% 7-2
ATS
60% 6-4
56% 5-4
90% 9-1
56% 5-4
TTL
60% 6-4
44% 4-5
80% 8-2
56% 5-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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