Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Boston College @ Duke BC @ DUKE

BOSTON COLLEGE

BOSTON COLLEGEBC

4-4  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sat, Oct 31 • 12:00 PM ET
Wallace Wade Stadium
View Odds Details →

DUKE

DUKEDUKE

6-2  |  Home

47
Key Game
Bryce LaFollette
KEY GAME

Bryce LaFollette

#96 | Punter
@
Kade Reynoldson
KEY GAME

Kade Reynoldson

#41 | Punter
Player
Bryce LaFollette None-None
Kade Reynoldson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BOSTON COLLEGE
17%
📊
DUKE
83%
▲ Edge: +10.90% (DUKE)
BOSTON COLLEGE 31% Book Odds: +221
DUKE 72% Book Odds: -253
Book Implied: 31.20% / 71.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.5
Projected
Book Total
49.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 (Over)
Over 49.0 55%
Under 49.0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.5
DUKE
Book Spread
-7
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.5 points (Duke)
Boston CollegeBC (+7) 0 DukeDUKE (-7)
Duke Blue Devils (-7) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Boston College Cover

11.9%

Duke Cover

88.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DUKE -16.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DUKE)

BC By 1-6 points

6.2%

BC By 7-13 points

3.4%

DUKE By 1-6 points

11.1%

DUKE By 7-13 points

17.8%

AI Model Projected Score
17.5
BOSTON COLLEGE
Book Implied: 21
34
DUKE
Book Implied: 28
Simulated Score
16
BOSTON COLLEGE
Book Implied: 21
35
DUKE
Book Implied: 28
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Duke Win
83% Win Prob
A
Sim Duke Win
97% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Duke (-7) Win
Proj Spread: -16.5
A
Sim Duke (-7) Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o49.0 Push
Proj Total: 51.5
C
Sim o49.0 Push
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 31, 2026 BC @ DUKE 2 - 47
Nov 4, 2022 DUKE @ BC 38 - 31
Sep 19, 2020 BC @ DUKE 26 - 6
Oct 3, 2015 BC @ DUKE 7 - 9
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +34.2% more
Boston College: 218.6 vs Duke: 143.9
Turnovers (L5) +29.0% more
Boston College: 1.0 vs Duke: 0.7
First Downs (L5) +10.4% more
Boston College: 22.9 vs Duke: 20.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BC Score 17.5 2
DUKE Score 34.0 47
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.5 / 22.9 21.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 143.9 / 218.6 149.0 / 78.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.42 / 0.15
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.99 / 0.01
Total Yards 396.5 / 405.6 382.0 / 213.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.0 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +210 / -258 → +221 / -253
6%TICKETS94%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +7 / -7 → +7 / -7
50%TICKETS50%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: 47.5 → 49 ↑
61%TICKETS39%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BC
4-5-0 (44.4%)
Margin: -5.1 ATS +/-: -1.9
DUKE Advantage
7-2-0 (77.8%)
Margin: 20.0 ATS +/-: +11.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BC
5-4-0 (55.6%)
Margin: -5.1 ATS +/-: -1.9
DUKE Advantage
7-2-0 (77.8%)
Margin: 20.0 ATS +/-: +11.9
⚖️ Over/Under
BC
3-6-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -1.8
DUKE
3-6-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -4.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DUKE
BC
DUKE
BC
ML
78% 7-2
56% 5-4
67% 6-3
67% 6-3
ATS
67% 6-3
44% 4-5
56% 5-4
67% 6-3
TTL
38% 3-5-1
38% 3-5-1
38% 3-5-1
50% 4-4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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