Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / California @ NC State CAL @ NCSU

CALIFORNIA

CALIFORNIACAL

3-6  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Oct 31 • 12:00 PM ET
Carter-Finley Stadium
View Odds Details →

NC STATE

NC STATENCSU

4-4  |  Home

31
Key Game
Angus Davies
KEY GAME

Angus Davies

#29 | Punter
@
👤
KEY GAME

Omarian Abraham

#56 | Offensive Lineman
Player
Angus Davies None-None
Omarian Abraham None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CALIFORNIA
28%
📊
NC STATE
72%
▲ Edge: +0.20% (CAL)
CALIFORNIA 28% Book Odds: +262
NC STATE 75% Book Odds: -305
Book Implied: 27.60% / 75.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
57.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +2.0 (Under)
Over 57.0 47%
Under 57.0 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
NC STATE
Book Spread
-9.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (NC State)
CaliforniaCAL (+9.5) 0 NC StateNCSU (-9.5)
NC State Wolfpack (-9.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

California Cover

23.8%

NC State Cover

76.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NCSU -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NCSU)

CAL By 1-6 points

10.7%

CAL By 7-13 points

7.3%

NCSU By 1-6 points

15.3%

NCSU By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
22.5
CALIFORNIA
Book Implied: 23.80
32.5
NC STATE
Book Implied: 33.20
Simulated Score
20
CALIFORNIA
Book Implied: 23.80
34
NC STATE
Book Implied: 33.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI NC State Win
72% Win Prob
A
Sim NC State Win
92% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI NC State (-9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim NC State (-9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u57.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
D
Sim u57.0 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 31, 2026 CAL @ NCSU 10 - 31
Oct 19, 2024 NCSU @ CAL 24 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +82.3% more
NC State: 124.8 vs California: 68.5
Turnovers (L5) +35.0% more
NC State: 0.8 vs California: 0.4
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +17.0% more
NC State: 0.5 vs California: 0.4
Total Yards (L5) +16.0% more
NC State: 394.7 vs California: 340.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CAL Score 22.5 10
NCSU Score 32.5 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.7 / 19.2 19.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 124.8 / 68.5 135.0 / 73.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.47 / 0.28
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 394.7 / 340.2 327.0 / 269.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 0.4 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +250 / -310 → +262 / -305
7%TICKETS93%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +8.5 / -8.5 → +9.5 / -9.5 ↑
54%TICKETS46%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: 56.5 → 57 ↑
40%TICKETS60%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CAL
3-6-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -9.7 ATS +/-: -9.5
NCSU Advantage
4-5-0 (44.4%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: -3.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CAL
2-7-0 (22.2%)
Margin: -9.7 ATS +/-: -9.5
NCSU Advantage
3-6-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-: -3.5
⚖️ Over/Under
CAL
3-6-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -1.7
NCSU
5-4-0
O: 55.6% / U: 44.4% Total +/-: +2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NCSU
CAL
NCSU
CAL
ML
67% 6-3
56% 5-4
78% 7-2
78% 7-2
ATS
78% 7-2
33% 3-6
67% 6-3
56% 5-4
TTL
56% 5-4
56% 5-4
67% 6-3
78% 7-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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