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KANSAS STATE

KANSAS STKSU

4-4  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Oct 31 • 2:00 PM ET
Folsom Field
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

COLORADOCOLO

3-5  |  Home

27
Key Game
Simon McClannan
KEY GAME

Simon McClannan

#8 | Punter
@
Damon Greaves
KEY GAME

Damon Greaves

#35 | Punter
Player
Simon McClannan None-None
Damon Greaves None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
KANSAS ST
72%
📊
COLORADO
28%
▲ Edge: +30.70% (KSU)
KANSAS ST 42% Book Odds: +141
COLORADO 61% Book Odds: -156
Book Implied: 41.50% / 60.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
47.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 (Over)
Over 47.0 57%
Under 47.0 43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
KANSAS STATE
Book Spread
+3
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Kansas State)
Kansas StKSU (+3) 0 ColoradoCOLO (-3)
Kansas State Wildcats (+3) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kansas St Cover

76.2%

Colorado Cover

23.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around KSU -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KSU)

KSU By 1-6 points

15.3%

KSU By 7-13 points

19.7%

COLO By 1-6 points

10.7%

COLO By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
30
KANSAS STATE
Book Implied: 22
20
COLORADO
Book Implied: 25
Simulated Score
29
KANSAS STATE
Book Implied: 22
25
COLORADO
Book Implied: 25
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Kansas St Loss
72% Win Prob
A
Sim Kansas St Loss
66% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Kansas St (+3) Push
Proj Spread: -10.0
A
Sim Kansas St (+3) Push
Proj Spread: -4.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o47.0 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Sim o47.0 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 31, 2026 KSU @ COLO 24 - 27
Nov 29, 2025 COLO @ KSU 14 - 24
Oct 12, 2024 KSU @ COLO 31 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +46.5% more
Kansas State: 189.3 vs Colorado: 101.3
First Downs (L5) +9.9% more
Kansas State: 21.2 vs Colorado: 19.1
Turnovers (L5) +192.0% more
Colorado: 2.6 vs Kansas State: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KSU Score 30.0 24
COLO Score 20.0 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.1 / 21.2 19.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 101.3 / 189.3 222.0 / 121.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 387.6 / 395.7 407.0 / 347.0
Turnovers 2.6 / 0.7 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -162 / +136 → +141 / -156 ↑
50%TICKETS50%
33%MONEY67%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -3.5 / +3.5 → +3 / -3 ↑
63%TICKETS37%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: 48.5 → 47 ↓
72%TICKETS28%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KSU Advantage
4-5-0 (44.4%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -4.6
COLO
4-6-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -6.7 ATS +/-: -3.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KSU Advantage
3-5-1 (37.5%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -4.6
COLO
3-6-1 (33.3%)
Margin: -6.7 ATS +/-: -3.9
⚖️ Over/Under
KSU
6-3-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +4.4
COLO
6-4-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COLO
KSU
COLO
KSU
ML
70% 7-3
56% 5-4
70% 7-3
78% 7-2
ATS
44% 4-5-1
62% 5-3-1
67% 6-3-1
75% 6-2-1
TTL
40% 4-6
33% 3-6
20% 2-8
56% 5-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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