KANSAS
KANSASKU
3-5 | Road
16
TCU
TCUTCU
4-4 | Home
22
Key Game
KEY GAME
Martin Connington
#29 | Place kicker@
KEY GAME
John Hoyet Chance
#48 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Martin Connington | None-None |
| John Hoyet Chance | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
KANSAS
24%
TCU
76%
▲ Edge: +6.50% (TCU)
KANSAS
34%
Book Odds: +198
TCU
69%
Book Odds: -225
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.6
Projected
Book Total
46.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +5.6 (Over)
Over 46.0
62%
Under 46.0
38%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
TCU
Book Spread
-6.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.5 points (TCU)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TCU -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TCU)
KU By 1-6 points
9.3%
KU By 7-13 points
5.9%
TCU By 1-6 points
14.2%
TCU By 7-13 points
19.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Kansas
19.8
KANSAS
Book Implied: 19.80
TCU
31.8
TCU
Book Implied: 26.20
Simulated Score
Kansas
34
KANSAS
Book Implied: 19.80
TCU
30
TCU
Book Implied: 26.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
TCU
Win
76% Win Prob
A
Sim
Kansas
Loss
66% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
TCU (-6.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
B
Sim
Kansas (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
o46.0
Loss
Proj Total: 51.6
B
Sim
o46.0
Loss
Proj Total: 64.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 31, 2026
KU @ TCU
16 - 22
Sep 28, 2024
TCU @ KU
38 - 27
Oct 8, 2022
TCU @ KU
38 - 31
Nov 20, 2021
KU @ TCU
28 - 31
Nov 28, 2020
TCU @ KU
59 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+34.2% more
TCU: 2.0
vs
Kansas: 1.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5)
+13.0% more
TCU: 0.5
vs
Kansas: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5)
+51.8% more
Kansas: 198.0
vs
TCU: 95.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
KU Score
19.8
16
TCU Score
31.8
22
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
22.5 / 22.7
19.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards
95.3 / 198.0
145.0 / 166.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.5 / 0.3
0.36 / 0.35
Time of Possession
0.6 / 0.5
0.35 / 0.65
Total Yards
408.4 / 417.9
286.0 / 451.0
Turnovers
2.0 / 1.5
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +150 / -180
→
+198 / -225
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +4.5 / -4.5
→
+6.5 / -6.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 48.5
→
46
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KU
3-6-0
(33.3%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: +0.3
TCU
Advantage
4-5-0
(44.4%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KU
3-6-0
(33.3%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: +0.3
TCU
Advantage
4-5-0
(44.4%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
KU
5-4-0
O: 55.6% / U: 44.4%
Total +/-: +2.7
TCU
2-7-0
O: 22.2% / U: 77.8%
Total +/-: -11.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TCU
KU
TCU
KU
ML
67%
6-3
78%
7-2
44%
4-5
56%
5-4
ATS
33%
3-6
56%
5-4
44%
4-5
33%
3-6
TTL
56%
5-4
67%
6-3
11%
1-8
44%
4-5
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