Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Northwestern @ Oregon NU @ ORE

NORTHWESTERN

NORTHWESTERNNU

6-2  |  Road

26
FINAL
Sat, Oct 31 • 3:30 PM ET
Autzen Stadium
View Odds Details →

OREGON

OREGONORE

5-3  |  Home

34
Key Game
Nikola Dugandzic
KEY GAME

Nikola Dugandzic

#92 | Punter
@
Bailey Ettridge
KEY GAME

Bailey Ettridge

#39 | Punter
Player
Nikola Dugandzic None-None
Bailey Ettridge None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NORTHWESTERN
31%
📊
OREGON
69%
▲ Edge: +3.60% (ORE)
NORTHWESTERN 38% Book Odds: +166
OREGON 65% Book Odds: -186
Book Implied: 37.60% / 65%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.6
Projected
Book Total
48.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +7.1 (Over)
Over 48.5 67%
Under 48.5 33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
OREGON
Book Spread
-3.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 points (Oregon)
NorthwesternNU (+3.5) 0 OregonORE (-3.5)
Oregon Ducks (-3.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Northwestern Cover

28.4%

Oregon Cover

71.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ORE -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORE)

NU By 1-6 points

12.2%

NU By 7-13 points

8.8%

ORE By 1-6 points

16.1%

ORE By 7-13 points

19.5%

AI Model Projected Score
23.8
NORTHWESTERN
Book Implied: 22.50
31.8
OREGON
Book Implied: 26
Simulated Score
25
NORTHWESTERN
Book Implied: 22.50
35
OREGON
Book Implied: 26
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Oregon Win
69% Win Prob
A
Sim Oregon Win
84% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Oregon (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
B
Sim Oregon (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.6
A
Sim o48.5 Win
Proj Total: 60.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 31, 2026 NU @ ORE 26 - 34
Sep 13, 2025 ORE @ NU 34 - 14
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +141.0% more
Oregon: 2.0 vs Northwestern: 0.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +30.6% more
Northwestern: 212.7 vs Oregon: 147.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +23.0% more
Northwestern: 0.5 vs Oregon: 0.3
First Downs (L5) +19.0% more
Northwestern: 24.1 vs Oregon: 19.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NU Score 23.8 26
ORE Score 31.8 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.5 / 24.1 17.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 147.7 / 212.7 105.0 / 175.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.41
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.4 / 0.6
Total Yards 387.8 / 435.6 441.0 / 456.0
Turnovers 2.0 / 0.6 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +150 / -180 → +166 / -186 ↑
31%TICKETS69%
55%MONEY45%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +4.5 / -4.5 → +3.5 / -3.5 ↓
71%TICKETS29%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51.5 → 48.5 ↓
67%TICKETS33%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NU
6-3-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +6.6
ORE
6-3-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -4.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NU Advantage
5-4-0 (55.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +6.6
ORE
4-5-0 (44.4%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -4.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NU
6-3-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +0.8
ORE
6-3-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORE
NU
ORE
NU
ML
56% 5-4
88% 7-1
44% 4-5
67% 6-3
ATS
33% 3-6
62% 5-3
56% 5-4
56% 5-4
TTL
33% 3-6
88% 7-1
56% 5-4
44% 4-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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