SMU
SMUSMU
6-2 | Road
27
SYRACUSE
SYRACUSESYR
4-4 | Home
30
Key Game
KEY GAME
Wade McSparron
#43 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Jimmy Gregg
#41 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Wade McSparron | None-None |
| Jimmy Gregg | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SMU
83%
SYRACUSE
17%
▲ Edge: +8.30% (SMU)
SMU
75%
Book Odds: -304
SYRACUSE
28%
Book Odds: +261
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
58.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +6.5 (Under)
Over 58.5
37%
Under 58.5
63%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
SMU
Book Spread
-9.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.5 points (SMU)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around SMU -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMU)
SMU By 1-6 points
10.7%
SMU By 7-13 points
17.5%
SYR By 1-6 points
5.9%
SYR By 7-13 points
3.2%
AI Model Projected Score
SMU
34.5
SMU
Book Implied: 34
Syracuse
17.5
SYRACUSE
Book Implied: 24.50
Simulated Score
SMU
28
SMU
Book Implied: 34
Syracuse
27
SYRACUSE
Book Implied: 24.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
SMU
Loss
83% Win Prob
A
Sim
SMU
Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
SMU (-9.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
A
Sim
Syracuse (+9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
u58.5
Win
Proj Total: 52.0
B
Sim
u58.5
Win
Proj Total: 55.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 31, 2026
SMU @ SYR
27 - 30
Oct 4, 2025
SYR @ SMU
18 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+61.0% more
Syracuse: 1.2
vs
SMU: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SMU Score
34.5
27
SYR Score
17.5
30
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
24.6 / 26.0
20.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards
165.1 / 177.1
138.0 / 70.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.4
0.25 / 0.46
Time of Possession
0.6 / 0.5
0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards
440.5 / 445.1
338.0 / 421.0
Turnovers
1.2 / 0.6
0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -455 / +350
→
-304 / +261
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -12.5 / +12.5
→
-9.5 / +9.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 55.5
→
58.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SMU
Advantage
7-2-0
(77.8%)
Margin: 14.1
ATS +/-: 0.0
SYR
4-5-0
(44.4%)
Margin: 3.9
ATS +/-: +5.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SMU
3-4-2
(42.9%)
Margin: 14.1
ATS +/-: 0.0
SYR
Advantage
5-4-0
(55.6%)
Margin: 3.9
ATS +/-: +5.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SMU
4-5-0
O: 44.4% / U: 55.6%
Total +/-: +3.5
SYR
5-4-0
O: 55.6% / U: 44.4%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SYR
SMU
SYR
SMU
ML
67%
6-3
89%
8-1
78%
7-2
89%
8-1
ATS
44%
4-5
50%
4-4-1
89%
8-1
75%
6-2-1
TTL
56%
5-4
44%
4-5
67%
6-3
67%
6-3
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