Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Virginia @ Wake Forest UVA @ WAKE

VIRGINIA

VIRGINIAUVA

4-5  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Oct 31 • 3:45 PM ET
Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
View Odds Details →

WAKE FOREST

WAKE FORESTWAKE

7-1  |  Home

51
Key Game
Will Bettridge
KEY GAME

Will Bettridge

#41 | Place kicker
@
Ethan Hyams
KEY GAME

Ethan Hyams

#45 | Punter
Player
Will Bettridge None-None
Ethan Hyams None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
VIRGINIA
26%
📊
WAKE FOREST
74%
▲ Edge: +5.90% (UVA)
VIRGINIA 20% Book Odds: +390
WAKE FOREST 84% Book Odds: -521
Book Implied: 20.40% / 83.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
47.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +7.5 (Over)
Over 47.5 64%
Under 47.5 36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+11.0
VIRGINIA
Book Spread
+13.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Virginia)
VirginiaUVA (+13.5) 0 Wake ForestWAKE (-13.5)
Virginia Cavaliers (+13.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Virginia Cover

78.4%

Wake Forest Cover

21.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UVA +11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVA)

UVA By 1-6 points

10.0%

UVA By 7-13 points

6.6%

WAKE By 1-6 points

14.7%

WAKE By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
22
VIRGINIA
Book Implied: 17
33
WAKE FOREST
Book Implied: 30.50
Simulated Score
23
VIRGINIA
Book Implied: 17
34
WAKE FOREST
Book Implied: 30.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Wake Forest Win
74% Win Prob
A
Sim Wake Forest Win
86% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Virginia (+13.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +11.0
C
Sim Virginia (+13.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +11.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o47.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
B
Sim o47.5 Win
Proj Total: 57.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 31, 2026 UVA @ WAKE 7 - 51
Nov 8, 2025 WAKE @ UVA 16 - 9
Sep 7, 2024 UVA @ WAKE 31 - 30
Sep 24, 2021 WAKE @ UVA 37 - 17
Oct 17, 2020 UVA @ WAKE 23 - 40
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +40.1% more
Wake Forest: 454.9 vs Virginia: 324.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +21.0% more
Wake Forest: 0.5 vs Virginia: 0.3
First Downs (L5) +16.2% more
Wake Forest: 23.0 vs Virginia: 19.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +9.0% more
Wake Forest: 164.5 vs Virginia: 150.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UVA Score 22.0 7
WAKE Score 33.0 51
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.0 / 19.8 28.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 164.5 / 150.8 309.0 / 16.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.64 / 0.08
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 454.9 / 324.8 538.0 / 330.0
Turnovers 0.4 / 1.1 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +380 / -500 → +390 / -521 ↑
2%TICKETS98%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +13.5 / -13.5 → +13.5 / -13.5
50%TICKETS50%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: 49.5 → 47.5 ↓
60%TICKETS40%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UVA
4-5-0 (44.4%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -5.7
WAKE Advantage
8-1-0 (88.9%)
Margin: 27.4 ATS +/-: +17.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UVA
3-5-1 (37.5%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -5.7
WAKE Advantage
7-2-0 (77.8%)
Margin: 27.4 ATS +/-: +17.7
⚖️ Over/Under
UVA
4-5-0
O: 44.4% / U: 55.6% Total +/-: -2.1
WAKE
5-4-0
O: 55.6% / U: 44.4% Total +/-: +5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WAKE
UVA
WAKE
UVA
ML
78% 7-2
78% 7-2
78% 7-2
78% 7-2
ATS
44% 4-5
38% 3-5-1
56% 5-4
38% 3-5-1
TTL
78% 7-2
56% 5-4
56% 5-4
22% 2-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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