Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Wisconsin @ Iowa WIS @ IOWA

WISCONSIN

WISCONSINWIS

5-3  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, Oct 31 • 12:00 PM ET
Kinnick Stadium
View Odds Details →

IOWA

IOWAIOWA

6-2  |  Home

30
Key Game
JuJu Pope
KEY GAME

JuJu Pope

#20 | Running Back
@
👤
KEY GAME

Boston Everitt

#49 | Punter
Player
JuJu Pope None-None
Boston Everitt None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WISCONSIN
28%
📊
IOWA
72%
▲ Edge: +14.90% (IOWA)
WISCONSIN 45% Book Odds: +121
IOWA 57% Book Odds: -134
Book Implied: 45.20% / 57.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.6
Projected
Book Total
36.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +15.1 (Over)
Over 36.5 80%
Under 36.5 20%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
IOWA
Book Spread
-2.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.5 points (Iowa)
WisconsinWIS (+2.5) 0 IowaIOWA (-2.5)
Iowa Hawkeyes (-2.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wisconsin Cover

23.8%

Iowa Cover

76.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around IOWA -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IOWA)

WIS By 1-6 points

10.7%

WIS By 7-13 points

7.3%

IOWA By 1-6 points

15.3%

IOWA By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
20.8
WISCONSIN
Book Implied: 17
30.8
IOWA
Book Implied: 19.50
Simulated Score
16
WISCONSIN
Book Implied: 17
19
IOWA
Book Implied: 19.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Iowa Win
72% Win Prob
A
Sim Iowa Win
61% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Iowa (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
A
Sim Iowa (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o36.5 Loss
Proj Total: 51.6
A
Sim u36.5 Win
Proj Total: 35.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 31, 2026 WIS @ IOWA 0 - 30
Oct 11, 2025 IOWA @ WIS 37 - 0
Nov 2, 2024 WIS @ IOWA 10 - 42
Oct 14, 2023 IOWA @ WIS 15 - 6
Nov 12, 2022 WIS @ IOWA 10 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +122.0% more
Iowa: 1.7 vs Wisconsin: 0.5
Total Yards (L5) +27.6% more
Iowa: 352.7 vs Wisconsin: 276.5
First Downs (L5) +16.6% more
Iowa: 18.5 vs Wisconsin: 15.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Wisconsin: 0.4 vs Iowa: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WIS Score 20.8 0
IOWA Score 30.8 30
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.5 / 15.9 20.0 / 9.0
Rushing Yards 151.6 / 152.9 140.0 / 52.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.53 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.61 / 0.39
Total Yards 352.7 / 276.5 362.0 / 235.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 0.5 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +154 / -185 → +121 / -134 ↓
28%TICKETS72%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +4.5 / -4.5 → +2.5 / -2.5 ↓
51%TICKETS49%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: 39.5 → 36.5 ↓
69%TICKETS31%
33%MONEY67%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WIS
6-3-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +1.9
IOWA Advantage
7-2-0 (77.8%)
Margin: 15.6 ATS +/-: +7.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WIS
5-4-0 (55.6%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +1.9
IOWA Advantage
6-3-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 15.6 ATS +/-: +7.4
⚖️ Over/Under
WIS
3-6-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -4.4
IOWA
2-7-0
O: 22.2% / U: 77.8% Total +/-: -2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IOWA
WIS
IOWA
WIS
ML
78% 7-2
78% 7-2
67% 6-3
56% 5-4
ATS
67% 6-3
33% 3-6
44% 4-5
44% 4-5
TTL
22% 2-7
33% 3-6
22% 2-7
56% 5-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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