Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Missouri @ Arkansas MIZ @ ARK

MISSOURI

MISSOURIMIZ

6-2  |  Road

34
FINAL
Sat, Oct 31 • 7:45 PM ET
Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARKANSAS

ARKANSASARK

3-5  |  Home

10
Key Game
Brunno Reus
KEY GAME

Brunno Reus

#40 | Place kicker
@
Jesse Ehrlich
KEY GAME

Jesse Ehrlich

#34 | Punter
Player
Brunno Reus None-None
Jesse Ehrlich None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MISSOURI
72%
📊
ARKANSAS
28%
▲ Edge: +4.40% (ARK)
MISSOURI 80% Book Odds: -393
ARKANSAS 23% Book Odds: +328
Book Implied: 79.70% / 23.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
48.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 (Over)
Over 48.5 54%
Under 48.5 46%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+10.0
ARKANSAS
Book Spread
+10.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Arkansas)
MissouriMIZ (-10.5) 0 ArkansasARK (+10.5)
Arkansas Razorbacks (+10.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Missouri Cover

23.8%

Arkansas Cover

76.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ARK +10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARK)

MIZ By 1-6 points

15.3%

MIZ By 7-13 points

19.7%

ARK By 1-6 points

10.7%

ARK By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
30
MISSOURI
Book Implied: 29.50
20
ARKANSAS
Book Implied: 19
Simulated Score
30
MISSOURI
Book Implied: 29.50
26
ARKANSAS
Book Implied: 19
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Missouri Win
72% Win Prob
A
Sim Missouri Win
66% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Arkansas (+10.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +10.0
D
Sim Arkansas (+10.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +4.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o48.5 Loss
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Sim o48.5 Loss
Proj Total: 56.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 31, 2026 MIZ @ ARK 34 - 10
Nov 29, 2025 MIZ @ ARK 31 - 17
Nov 30, 2024 ARK @ MIZ 21 - 28
Nov 24, 2023 MIZ @ ARK 48 - 14
Nov 25, 2022 ARK @ MIZ 27 - 29
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +13.9% more
Missouri: 409.6 vs Arkansas: 352.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIZ Score 30.0 34
ARK Score 20.0 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.9 / 19.8 18.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 136.9 / 148.3 59.0 / 211.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.47 / 0.46
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 352.5 / 409.6 288.0 / 390.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 0.7 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -375 / +295 → -393 / +328 ↓
98%TICKETS2%
93%MONEY7%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -10.5 / +10.5 → -10.5 / +10.5
66%TICKETS34%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: 48.5 → 48.5
60%TICKETS40%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIZ Advantage
6-2-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 13.1 ATS +/-: +2.1
ARK
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -4.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIZ Advantage
4-4-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 13.1 ATS +/-: +2.1
ARK
3-5-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -4.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MIZ
3-5-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5% Total +/-: -4.5
ARK
2-6-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARK
MIZ
ARK
MIZ
ML
88% 7-1
75% 6-2
75% 6-2
75% 6-2
ATS
50% 4-4
38% 3-5
50% 4-4
50% 4-4
TTL
38% 3-5
12% 1-7
25% 2-6
25% 2-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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