Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Nevada @ UCLA NEV @ UCLA

NEVADA

NEVADANEV

3-5  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, Oct 31 • 4:15 PM ET
Rose Bowl
View Odds Details →

UCLA

UCLAUCLA

8-0  |  Home

27
Key Game
Ewan Baulch
KEY GAME

Ewan Baulch

#95 | Punter
@
Curtis Gerrand
KEY GAME

Curtis Gerrand

#35 | Punter
Player
Ewan Baulch None-None
Curtis Gerrand None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NEVADA
6%
📊
UCLA
94%
▲ Edge: +0.30% (UCLA)
NEVADA 9% Book Odds: +1050
UCLA 94% Book Odds: -1625
Book Implied: 8.70% / 94.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
57.6
Projected
Book Total
43.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +14.6 (Over)
Over 43.0 81%
Under 43.0 19%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-30.0
UCLA
Book Spread
-22
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (UCLA)
NevadaNEV (+22) 0 UCLAUCLA (-22)
UCLA Bruins (-22) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nevada Cover

1.6%

UCLA Cover

98.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UCLA -30.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCLA)

NEV By 1-6 points

1.0%

NEV By 7-13 points

0.4%

UCLA By 1-6 points

2.9%

UCLA By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
13.8
NEVADA
Book Implied: 10.50
43.8
UCLA
Book Implied: 32.50
Simulated Score
19
NEVADA
Book Implied: 10.50
28
UCLA
Book Implied: 32.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI UCLA Win
94% Win Prob
A
Sim UCLA Win
81% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI UCLA (-22) Win
Proj Spread: -30.0
A
Sim Nevada (+22) Loss
Proj Spread: +9.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o43.0 Loss
Proj Total: 57.6
A
Sim o43.0 Loss
Proj Total: 47.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 31, 2026 NEV @ UCLA 0 - 27
Aug 31, 2013 NEV @ UCLA 20 - 58
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +34.4% more
UCLA: 203.3 vs Nevada: 151.3
Turnovers (L5) +32.2% more
UCLA: 1.9 vs Nevada: 1.4
Total Yards (L5) +26.0% more
UCLA: 419.5 vs Nevada: 333.0
First Downs (L5) +18.5% more
UCLA: 21.8 vs Nevada: 18.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NEV Score 13.8 0
UCLA Score 43.8 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.8 / 18.4 14.0 / 10.0
Rushing Yards 203.3 / 151.3 125.0 / 65.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.38 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 419.5 / 333.0 303.0 / 176.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 1.4 0.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +1200 / -2381 → +1050 / -1625 ↓
1%TICKETS99%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +23.5 / -23.5 → +22 / -22 ↓
32%TICKETS68%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: 48.5 → 43 ↓
83%TICKETS17%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NEV
4-6-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-: +2.9
UCLA Advantage
10-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 18.3 ATS +/-: +10.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NEV
6-4-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-: +2.9
UCLA Advantage
9-1-0 (90.0%)
Margin: 18.3 ATS +/-: +10.6
⚖️ Over/Under
NEV
3-7-0
O: 30.0% / U: 70.0% Total +/-: -3.8
UCLA
4-6-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -2.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCLA
NEV
UCLA
NEV
ML
70% 7-3
70% 7-3
70% 7-3
80% 8-2
ATS
44% 4-5-1
50% 5-5
22% 2-7-1
40% 4-6
TTL
30% 3-7
20% 2-8
30% 3-7
70% 7-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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