UTAH
UTAHUTAH
8-0 | Road
49
CINCINNATI
CINCINNATICIN
5-3 | Home
25
Key Game
KEY GAME
Orion Phillips
#92 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Max Fletcher
#31 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Orion Phillips | None-None |
| Max Fletcher | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UTAH
75%
CINCINNATI
25%
▲ Edge: +1.70% (UTAH)
UTAH
73%
Book Odds: -270
CINCINNATI
30%
Book Odds: +235
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
56.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +4.5 (Under)
Over 56.5
41%
Under 56.5
59%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.6
UTAH
Book Spread
-7
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.6 points (Utah)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around UTAH -11.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTAH)
UTAH By 1-6 points
14.4%
UTAH By 7-13 points
19.6%
CIN By 1-6 points
9.6%
CIN By 7-13 points
6.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Utah
31.8
UTAH
Book Implied: 31.80
Cincinnati
20.2
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 24.80
Simulated Score
Utah
33
UTAH
Book Implied: 31.80
Cincinnati
28
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 24.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Utah
Win
75% Win Prob
A
Sim
Utah
Win
69% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Utah (-7)
Win
Proj Spread: -11.6
B
Sim
Cincinnati (+7)
Loss
Proj Spread: +5.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
u56.5
Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
B
Sim
o56.5
Win
Proj Total: 61.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 31, 2026
UTAH @ CIN
49 - 25
Nov 1, 2025
CIN @ UTAH
14 - 45
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+40.0% more
Utah: 1.6
vs
Cincinnati: 0.9
First Downs (L5)
+16.7% more
Utah: 25.5
vs
Cincinnati: 21.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UTAH Score
31.8
49
CIN Score
20.2
25
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
21.2 / 25.5
18.0 / 27.0
Rushing Yards
218.8 / 212.9
193.0 / 268.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.5
0.27 / 0.64
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.6
0.41 / 0.59
Total Yards
449.4 / 454.3
456.0 / 534.0
Turnovers
0.9 / 1.6
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -340 / +270
→
-270 / +235
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -9.5 / +9.5
→
-7 / +7
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 56.5
→
56.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTAH
Advantage
9-0-0
(100.0%)
Margin: 21.3
ATS +/-: +6.6
CIN
5-4-0
(55.6%)
Margin: 3.6
ATS +/-: +1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTAH
Advantage
8-1-0
(88.9%)
Margin: 21.3
ATS +/-: +6.6
CIN
5-4-0
(55.6%)
Margin: 3.6
ATS +/-: +1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UTAH
5-4-0
O: 55.6% / U: 44.4%
Total +/-: +0.6
CIN
6-3-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3%
Total +/-: +5.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
UTAH
CIN
UTAH
ML
62%
5-3
100%
9-0
78%
7-2
89%
8-1
ATS
50%
4-4
67%
6-3
56%
5-4
22%
2-7
TTL
38%
3-5
56%
5-4
44%
4-5
56%
5-4
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