Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Arizona @ Texas Tech ARIZ @ TTU

ARIZONA

ARIZONAARIZ

6-2  |  Road

26
FINAL
Sat, Oct 31 • 12:00 PM ET
Galaxy Stadium
View Odds Details →

TEXAS TECH

TEXAS TECHTTU

7-1  |  Home

34
Key Game
Chase Ridley
KEY GAME

Chase Ridley

#37 | Punter
@
Will Karoll
KEY GAME

Will Karoll

#49 | Punter
Player
Chase Ridley None-None
Will Karoll None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ARIZONA
41%
📊
TEXAS TECH
59%
▲ Edge: +2.10% (ARIZ)
ARIZONA 39% Book Odds: +156
TEXAS TECH 64% Book Odds: -174
Book Implied: 39.10% / 63.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.0
Projected
Book Total
54.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +1.5 (Under)
Over 54.5 46%
Under 54.5 54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.4
ARIZONA
Book Spread
+3.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Arizona)
ArizonaARIZ (+3.5) 0 Texas TechTTU (-3.5)
Arizona Wildcats (+3.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Arizona Cover

59.6%

Texas Tech Cover

40.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ARIZ +3.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARIZ)

ARIZ By 1-6 points

15.1%

ARIZ By 7-13 points

12.6%

TTU By 1-6 points

17.0%

TTU By 7-13 points

17.7%

AI Model Projected Score
24.8
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 25.50
28.2
TEXAS TECH
Book Implied: 29
Simulated Score
26
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 25.50
29
TEXAS TECH
Book Implied: 29
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Texas Tech Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim Texas Tech Win
61% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Arizona (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +3.4
D
Sim Arizona (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u54.5 Loss
Proj Total: 53.0
D
Sim o54.5 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 31, 2026 ARIZ @ TTU 26 - 34
Oct 5, 2024 TTU @ ARIZ 28 - 22
Sep 14, 2019 TTU @ ARIZ 14 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +121.0% more
Texas Tech: 1.9 vs Arizona: 0.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +28.8% more
Texas Tech: 197.0 vs Arizona: 153.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +18.0% more
Arizona: 0.5 vs Texas Tech: 0.3
Total Yards (L5) +10.3% more
Arizona: 469.9 vs Texas Tech: 421.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARIZ Score 24.8 26
TTU Score 28.2 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.7 / 23.7 20.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 197.0 / 153.0 328.0 / 12.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.38 / 0.42
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 421.5 / 469.9 472.0 / 429.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 0.7 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +235 / -290 → +156 / -174 ↓
17%TICKETS83%
76%MONEY24%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +7.5 / -7.5 → +3.5 / -3.5 ↓
56%TICKETS44%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: 52.5 → 54.5 ↑
55%TICKETS45%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARIZ
7-2-0 (77.8%)
Margin: 14.3 ATS +/-: +3.5
TTU Advantage
8-1-0 (88.9%)
Margin: 13.4 ATS +/-: -5.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARIZ
3-6-0 (33.3%)
Margin: 14.3 ATS +/-: +3.5
TTU Advantage
4-5-0 (44.4%)
Margin: 13.4 ATS +/-: -5.8
⚖️ Over/Under
ARIZ
5-4-0
O: 55.6% / U: 44.4% Total +/-: +1.2
TTU
7-2-0
O: 77.8% / U: 22.2% Total +/-: +5.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TTU
ARIZ
TTU
ARIZ
ML
89% 8-1
100% 9-0
100% 9-0
78% 7-2
ATS
56% 5-4
56% 5-4
33% 3-6
33% 3-6
TTL
56% 5-4
33% 3-6
56% 5-4
22% 2-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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