Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Auburn @ Ole Miss AUB @ MISS

AUBURN

AUBURNAUB

4-4  |  Road

15
FINAL
Sat, Oct 31 • 12:45 PM ET
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
View Odds Details →

OLE MISS

OLE MISSMISS

6-2  |  Home

45
Key Game
Hudson Kaak
KEY GAME

Hudson Kaak

#14 | Punter
@
Oscar Bird
KEY GAME

Oscar Bird

#33 | Punter
Player
Hudson Kaak None-None
Oscar Bird None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
AUBURN
18%
📊
OLE MISS
82%
▲ Edge: +1.90% (MISS)
AUBURN 23% Book Odds: +329
OLE MISS 80% Book Odds: -395
Book Implied: 23.30% / 79.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
56.5
Projected
Book Total
58.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +2.0 (Under)
Over 58.5 46%
Under 58.5 54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.5
OLE MISS
Book Spread
-10
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.5 points (Ole Miss)
AuburnAUB (+10) 0 Ole MissMISS (-10)
Ole Miss Rebels (-10) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Auburn Cover

13.4%

Ole Miss Cover

86.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MISS -15.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MISS)

AUB By 1-6 points

6.9%

AUB By 7-13 points

3.9%

MISS By 1-6 points

11.8%

MISS By 7-13 points

18.3%

AI Model Projected Score
20.5
AUBURN
Book Implied: 24.20
36
OLE MISS
Book Implied: 34.20
Simulated Score
23
AUBURN
Book Implied: 24.20
36
OLE MISS
Book Implied: 34.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Ole Miss Win
82% Win Prob
A
Sim Ole Miss Win
90% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Ole Miss (-10) Win
Proj Spread: -15.5
B
Sim Ole Miss (-10) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u58.5 Loss
Proj Total: 56.5
C
Sim o58.5 Win
Proj Total: 59.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 31, 2026 AUB @ MISS 15 - 45
Oct 21, 2023 MISS @ AUB 28 - 21
Oct 15, 2022 AUB @ MISS 34 - 48
Oct 30, 2021 MISS @ AUB 20 - 31
Oct 24, 2020 AUB @ MISS 35 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +97.0% more
Ole Miss: 1.8 vs Auburn: 0.8
First Downs (L5) +26.8% more
Ole Miss: 24.4 vs Auburn: 19.2
Total Yards (L5) +25.5% more
Ole Miss: 424.6 vs Auburn: 338.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +12.4% more
Ole Miss: 160.6 vs Auburn: 142.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AUB Score 20.5 15
MISS Score 36.0 45
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.4 / 19.2 31.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 160.6 / 142.9 224.0 / 63.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.81 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 424.6 / 338.4 487.0 / 312.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 0.8 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +320 / -410 → +329 / -395 ↓
4%TICKETS96%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +10.5 / -10.5 → +10 / -10 ↓
50%TICKETS50%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: 53.5 → 58.5 ↑
40%TICKETS60%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AUB
5-4-0 (55.6%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: -3.6
MISS Advantage
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 13.7 ATS +/-: +4.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AUB
2-7-0 (22.2%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: -3.6
MISS Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 13.7 ATS +/-: +4.2
⚖️ Over/Under
AUB
4-5-0
O: 44.4% / U: 55.6% Total +/-: -4.1
MISS
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +4.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MISS
AUB
MISS
AUB
ML
78% 7-2
67% 6-3
89% 8-1
67% 6-3
ATS
44% 4-5
44% 4-5
56% 5-4
67% 6-3
TTL
33% 3-6
44% 4-5
56% 5-4
22% 2-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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