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ARIZONA STATE

ARIZONA STASU

4-4  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Oct 31 • 3:30 PM ET
LaVell Edwards Stadium
View Odds Details →

BYU

BYUBYU

7-1  |  Home

27
Key Game
Nick McLarty
KEY GAME

Nick McLarty

#35 | Punter
@
Fuller Shurtz
KEY GAME

Fuller Shurtz

#19 | Punter
Player
Nick McLarty None-None
Fuller Shurtz None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ARIZONA ST
21%
📊
BYU
79%
▲ Edge: +6.70% (ASU)
ARIZONA ST 14% Book Odds: +605
BYU 89% Book Odds: -809
Book Implied: 14.20% / 89%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
48.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 (Over)
Over 48.0 66%
Under 48.0 34%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+14.0
ARIZONA STATE
Book Spread
+17
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Arizona State)
Arizona StASU (+17) 0 BYUBYU (-17)
Arizona State Sun Devils (+17) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Arizona St Cover

84.1%

BYU Cover

15.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ASU +14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ASU)

ASU By 1-6 points

7.9%

ASU By 7-13 points

4.7%

BYU By 1-6 points

12.9%

BYU By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
20.5
ARIZONA STATE
Book Implied: 15.50
34.5
BYU
Book Implied: 32.50
Simulated Score
23
ARIZONA STATE
Book Implied: 15.50
36
BYU
Book Implied: 32.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI BYU Win
79% Win Prob
A
Sim BYU Win
90% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Arizona St (+17) Win
Proj Spread: +14.0
C
Sim Arizona St (+17) Win
Proj Spread: +13.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o48.0 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
A
Sim o48.0 Loss
Proj Total: 59.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 31, 2026 ASU @ BYU 20 - 27
Nov 23, 2024 BYU @ ASU 23 - 28
Sep 18, 2021 ASU @ BYU 17 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +22.0% more
BYU: 0.5 vs Arizona State: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +13.6% more
BYU: 151.3 vs Arizona State: 133.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ASU Score 20.5 20
BYU Score 34.5 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.5 / 20.1 18.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 151.3 / 133.3 47.0 / 113.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.23 / 0.35
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 389.9 / 390.1 283.0 / 279.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.1 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +550 / -800 → +605 / -809
1%TICKETS99%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +16.5 / -16.5 → +17 / -17 ↑
43%TICKETS57%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51.5 → 48 ↓
77%TICKETS23%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ASU
5-4-0 (55.6%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: -1.8
BYU Advantage
7-2-0 (77.8%)
Margin: 11.2 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ASU
5-4-0 (55.6%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: -1.8
BYU Advantage
6-3-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 11.2 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ASU
5-4-0
O: 55.6% / U: 44.4% Total +/-: +5.7
BYU
5-4-0
O: 55.6% / U: 44.4% Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BYU
ASU
BYU
ASU
ML
88% 7-1
67% 6-3
67% 6-3
78% 7-2
ATS
62% 5-3
44% 4-5
56% 5-4
44% 4-5
TTL
25% 2-6
44% 4-5
44% 4-5
33% 3-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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