Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Mississippi St @ Texas MSST @ TEX

MISSISSIPPI STATE

MISSISSIPPI STMSST

4-4  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Oct 31 • 7:30 PM ET
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

TEXASTEX

6-2  |  Home

31
Key Game
Ethan Pulliam
KEY GAME

Ethan Pulliam

#8 | Punter
@
Mac Chiumento
KEY GAME

Mac Chiumento

#43 | Punter
Player
Ethan Pulliam None-None
Mac Chiumento None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MISSISSIPPI ST
15%
📊
TEXAS
85%
▲ Edge: +4.10% (MSST)
MISSISSIPPI ST 11% Book Odds: +800
TEXAS 93% Book Odds: -1351
Book Implied: 11.10% / 93.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
57.0
Projected
Book Total
49.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +7.5 (Over)
Over 49.5 65%
Under 49.5 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+18.0
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Book Spread
+19.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Mississippi State)
Mississippi StMSST (+19.5) 0 TexasTEX (-19.5)
Mississippi State Bulldogs (+19.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mississippi St Cover

90.1%

Texas Cover

9.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MSST +18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSST)

MSST By 1-6 points

5.3%

MSST By 7-13 points

2.8%

TEX By 1-6 points

10.0%

TEX By 7-13 points

16.8%

AI Model Projected Score
19.5
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Book Implied: 15
37.5
TEXAS
Book Implied: 34.50
Simulated Score
31
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Book Implied: 15
30
TEXAS
Book Implied: 34.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Texas Win
85% Win Prob
A
Sim Mississippi St Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mississippi St (+19.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +18.0
C
Sim Mississippi St (+19.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o49.5 Loss
Proj Total: 57.0
B
Sim o49.5 Loss
Proj Total: 61.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 31, 2026 MSST @ TEX 3 - 31
Oct 25, 2025 TEX @ MSST 45 - 38
Sep 28, 2024 MSST @ TEX 13 - 35
Key Model Drivers
No driver metrics compiled for this game.
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSST Score 19.5 3
TEX Score 37.5 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.1 / 20.4 13.0 / 12.0
Rushing Yards 148.6 / 150.9 60.0 / 68.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.43 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 362.8 / 371.2 280.0 / 187.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 1.8 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +800 / -1351 → +800 / -1351
2%TICKETS98%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +20.5 / -20.5 → +19.5 / -19.5 ↓
64%TICKETS36%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: 50.5 → 49.5 ↓
57%TICKETS43%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSST
4-5-0 (44.4%)
Margin: -1.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
TEX Advantage
7-2-0 (77.8%)
Margin: 13.7 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSST
4-5-0 (44.4%)
Margin: -1.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
TEX
4-5-0 (44.4%)
Margin: 13.7 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MSST
3-6-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -0.8
TEX
4-5-0
O: 44.4% / U: 55.6% Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
MSST
TEX
MSST
ML
67% 6-3
56% 5-4
44% 4-5
56% 5-4
ATS
44% 4-5
33% 3-6
56% 5-4
44% 4-5
TTL
44% 4-5
22% 2-7
44% 4-5
0% 0-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Alabama Tops Two-Loss Teams in College Football Playoff Race
headtopics 18 hours, 29 minutes ago
Brian Kelly Drops Blunt Warning: Texas Protection Issues Can't B…
newsweek 2 days, 12 hours ago
Top Tennessee Recruit Li'Marcus Jones Flips from Colorado to Mis…
foxnews 2 days, 12 hours ago
De'Rail Sims: Tennessee's Ground Game Identity, Daune Morris's B…
si 3 days, 12 hours ago
Tennessee's Defense Sends Ominous Message to Texas A&M with Domi…
si 3 days, 12 hours ago