Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Minnesota @ Indiana MINN @ IU

MINNESOTA

MINNESOTAMINN

5-3  |  Road

16
FINAL
Sat, Oct 31 • 3:30 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
View Odds Details →

INDIANA

INDIANAIU

8-1  |  Home

23
Key Game
Luke Drzewiecki
KEY GAME

Luke Drzewiecki

#-- | Place kicker
@
Billy Gowers
KEY GAME

Billy Gowers

#19 | Punter
Player
Luke Drzewiecki None-None
Billy Gowers None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MINNESOTA
10%
📊
INDIANA
90%
▲ Edge: +0.50% (MINN)
MINNESOTA 10% Book Odds: +896
INDIANA 93% Book Odds: -1322
Book Implied: 10% / 93%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
40.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 (Over)
Over 40.0 81%
Under 40.0 19%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.6
INDIANA
Book Spread
-20.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (Indiana)
MinnesotaMINN (+20.5) 0 IndianaIU (-20.5)
Indiana Hoosiers (-20.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Minnesota Cover

5.3%

Indiana Cover

94.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around IU -22.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IU)

MINN By 1-6 points

3.1%

MINN By 7-13 points

1.4%

IU By 1-6 points

6.8%

IU By 7-13 points

13.3%

AI Model Projected Score
16.2
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 9.80
38.8
INDIANA
Book Implied: 30.20
Simulated Score
22
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 9.80
38
INDIANA
Book Implied: 30.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Indiana Win
90% Win Prob
A
Sim Indiana Win
94% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Indiana (-20.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -22.6
C
Sim Minnesota (+20.5) Win
Proj Spread: +16.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o40.0 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
A
Sim o40.0 Loss
Proj Total: 60.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 31, 2026 MINN @ IU 16 - 23
Nov 20, 2021 MINN @ IU 35 - 14
Oct 26, 2018 IU @ MINN 31 - 38
Nov 2, 2013 MINN @ IU 42 - 39
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +75.8% more
Indiana: 147.8 vs Minnesota: 84.1
Total Yards (L5) +29.8% more
Indiana: 350.8 vs Minnesota: 270.2
First Downs (L5) +18.1% more
Indiana: 16.4 vs Minnesota: 13.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
Indiana: 0.4 vs Minnesota: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MINN Score 16.2 16
IU Score 38.8 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.4 / 13.9 21.0 / 10.0
Rushing Yards 147.8 / 84.1 144.0 / 95.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.15 / 0.2
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 350.8 / 270.2 419.0 / 215.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.3 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +1100 / -2083 → +896 / -1322 ↓
3%TICKETS97%
52%MONEY48%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +22.5 / -22.5 → +20.5 / -20.5 ↓
67%TICKETS33%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: 45.5 → 40 ↓
85%TICKETS15%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MINN
5-4-0 (55.6%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: +0.9
IU Advantage
8-1-0 (88.9%)
Margin: 20.0 ATS +/-: -4.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MINN Advantage
6-3-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: +0.9
IU
1-8-0 (11.1%)
Margin: 20.0 ATS +/-: -4.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MINN
4-5-0
O: 44.4% / U: 55.6% Total +/-: +1.2
IU
3-6-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -7.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IU
MINN
IU
MINN
ML
89% 8-1
44% 4-5
56% 5-4
89% 8-1
ATS
33% 3-6
33% 3-6
78% 7-2
67% 6-3
TTL
33% 3-6
56% 5-4
56% 5-4
22% 2-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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